Sports Image

Sports Image

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Is Derrick Rose a worthy MVP or the standout player in a mediocre year?

Sports Analytics Inc congratulates Derrick Rose on being the NBA's MVP for the 10/11 season. Derrick Rose has been instrumental at Chicago's leader getting them the best record in the Eastern Conference, leading them as their scoring point guard and propelling Chicago back to familiar territory as occupied under the Jordan-Pippen era. 


On face value Derrick Rose is a well-deserving MVP for his performance relative to his team's performance, however at Sports Analytics we look at the last 10 years of MVP winners, their teams and the season to determine if Derrick Rose is a clear cut winner or is he just a stellar performer in a year when individual stars sacrificed their game for team success.





Year
Player
MPG
FG%
3P%
FT%
OFF
DEF
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TO
PF
PPG
08-09
James
37.7
0.489
0.344
0.780
1.3
6.3
7.6
7.2
1.7
1.2
2.98
1.72
28.4
09-10
James
39.0
0.503
0.333
0.767
0.9
6.4
7.3
8.6
1.6
1.0
3.43
1.57
29.7
07-08
Bryant
38.9
0.459
0.361
0.840
1.1
5.2
6.3
5.4
1.8
0.5
3.13
2.77
28.3
06-07
Nowitzki
36.2
0.502
0.416
0.904
1.6
7.3
8.9
3.4
0.7
0.8
2.14
2.19
24.6
04-05
Nash
34.3
0.502
0.431
0.887
0.8
2.6
3.3
11.5
1.0
0.1
3.27
1.81
15.5
05-06
Nash
35.4
0.512
0.439
0.921
0.6
3.6
4.2
10.5
0.8
0.2
3.49
1.52
18.8
03-04
Garnett
39.4
0.499
0.256
0.791
3.0
10.9
13.9
5.0
1.5
2.2
2.59
2.46
24.2
02-03
Duncan
39.3
0.513
0.273
0.710
3.2
9.7
12.9
3.9
0.7
2.9
3.06
2.85
23.3
01-02
Duncan
40.6
0.508
0.100
0.799
3.3
9.4
12.7
3.7
0.7
2.5
3.21
2.65
25.5
00-01
Iverson
43.7
0.398
0.291
0.812
0.7
3.8
4.5
5.5
2.8
0.2
3.95
1.70
31.4

Year
Team
MPG
FG%
3P%
FT%
OFF
DEF
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TO
PF
PPG
10-11
Rose
37.4
0.445
0.332
0.858
1.0
3.1
4.1
7.7
1.0
0.6
3.43
1.68
25.0


Statistically speaking Rose's numbers are very strong. Rose's ability throughout the 10/11 season highlighted he could score at will with his slashing to the basket game and get to the free throw line and get easy points with strong conversion percentage. 


Comparatively to past winners, Rose's steals and assists for his position played are outstanding however the one knock on Rose's game is that he takes far too many shots in the offensive system the Bulls run and because he is not a hot shooter, this can sometimes detract from his primary role as a facilitating point guard. 


Despite this knock statistically, Rose is a deserving winner of the MVP award. Though you have to ask yourself, will their be an asterisk against his name because of the Wade, James tag-team teaming up for a ring and sacrificing their game. Kobe Bryant preferring to win than carry his team throughout the regular season to maintain freshness for the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki being hotter than his MVP season until he was injured. Dwight Howard being a monster in a team where his teammates let him down. Whilst these arguments can be made for any other  year, it is our gut feel that should Rose win MVP's in years to come they might be just more valuable than the one he has won today, based on the fact, this season saw a twist where players wanted to sacrifice their games for wins. The opposing argument to this though is that Rose did not sacrifice his game, he did not team up with other players to gang up on the league, and carried his team to the best Eastern Conference record. 


In summary, Rose is a deserving winner and despite many fans and experts highlighting it may come with asterisks due to the dynamic changes in the league this year, you can't fault anything Rose has dished up on and off the court this year. 






Congratulations and let's see if a run for the Title stamps these doubts out...

The week after Gold Coast - Teams are not turning up to play contested football

After 6 rounds of AFL football with the new Gold Coast team mixing it with the rest of the league, Sports Analytics has come up with an interesting stat. Teams the week after they play the Gold Coast are having trouble winning much like teams are struggling from having the week off with a bye. 



Team
Round
Win loss the next week
Carlton
2
Loss to Collingwood
Melbourne
3
Lost after bye to West Coast
Western Bulldogs
4
Lost after bye to Fremantle
Port Adelaide
5
Lost to North Melbourne



Of all the teams to have played the Gold Coast, the next game each team has played has been followed by a loss. Could it be that teams that have an easy week playing the Gold Coast (except for Port Adelaide's hiccup) lose match hardness and competitiveness because of the ease by which contested football is against the Gold Coast Suns. 


This is an interesting stat that should be looked at as the year progresses...