At Sports Analytics INC, we thought it might be necessary to look at the NFL heading into December and look at a team that has surprised many experts and analysts with a 9-2 record to lead the AFC East tied with Tom Brady's New England Patriots.
Mark Sanchez in action - courtesy of Espn.com
The surprises have even led to the NFL Network telecast questioning the New York Jets as the real deal with both Joe Theismann and Matt Millen definitively saying 'Hell No'. However it's not just the NFL Networks. Sports radio channels are taking pot shots at the Jets for their lapses in games, with an expectation they are meant to thrash every team. This is just unrealistic.
Jets fans have to be satisfied. The Jets are not perfect, but what other team is? No one is dominating the NFL this year.
It’s hard to be 9-2 in the NFL these days, however the Jets are winning games. Sure it is not pretty in large parts of the game, the Vince Lombardi trophies are not handed out to the prettiest or most aesthetic teams. It's the teams that win. That’s what matters at the end of the day.
From this perspective, this is a good team that will get better. They have the foundation that can win football games.
This team is not perfect. Their defense can let their guard down after a big lead. Their offense has been inconsistent at times. Their special teams struggle once in a month. And Coach Rex Ryan needs to perfect clock management better. Smarts will be what sees this team go deep in the post-season.
What many experts must also do is comparatively analyse the Jets against the other contenders. The Patriots are winning now, but their defense does not scare anyone, and only from super play from Tom Brady of late are they winning and keeping pace with the Jets. That’s why the Jets have a good shot of beating the Patriots next Monday night.
As for the other great teams: the Ravens, Falcons, Steelers, Packers, Saints and the Eagles have not been delivering outstanding performances week-in week-out. So analysts should keep their criticism of the Jets in their back pockets until the NFL season gets through December.
The critics one way or another will have their say in the coming month, with a prime opportunity to impress. The Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers and the Bears will get the Jets to step up their game. That means Ryan will have his team pay attention to detail. Their defense will need to improve and not take plays off. Their offense will need to click.
There’s no reason for the Jets to all of sudden get exposed. Mike Tannenbaum made additions this offseason in an attempt to accomplish their goal. So far, it worked out fine. Jason Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes performed well.
At Sports Analytics INC we will not continue to build on 'gut feelings' about the Jets. We believe breaking down their defense and offense will give us a clearer indication if the Jets truly can silence their critics.
Defense:
The Jets defense was impressive last season, finishing as the top ranked unit in the NFL. Outstanding play from cornerback Darrelle Revis was a large factor in their success, as was their constant pressure on the quarterback using exotic blitz schemes. In Rex Ryan’s 3-4 defense you’re never sure who will blitz, or where they will come from, which can put the offense back on their heels. The fact that Revis can cover the opponent’s top receiver on his own makes this scheme even more effective. Ryan’s approach is to blitz more players than the offense can block, and Revis essentially gives him a one man advantage. Instead of having to assign a safety to help in coverage, that safety is free to blitz or pick up another player’s assignment, allowing that player to blitz.
The Jets run defense finished ranked 8th in the league, giving up an average of only 3.8 yards per carry. This was mostly without nose tackle Kris Jenkins who missed 10 games last season with an ACL tear. If he returns at full strength he should make the Jets even more difficult to run against. They could do with some fresh pass rushing talent, especially at the DE position where starters Marques Douglas and Shaun Ellis are 33 and 32 respectively. Their outside linebackers Bryan Thomas, 30, and Calvin Pace, 29, performed well last season, but there is little depth behind them, and Vernon Gholston has not performed well. The Jets will probably try their luck at these positions again in April’s draft.
The Jets also sent safety Kerry Rhodes to Arizona Rhodes was excellent under former coach Eric Mangini, but fell out with Ryan and was unhappy due to lack of playing time. Brodney Pool, who has a history of concussions was signed to a one-year contract, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute.
Rex Ryan needs to ensure the defense from last year is built upon in the coming tough month's schedule. The defensive lapses that are letting teams get back into games is a worry. This has been further substantiated by their off-season moves being secondary and seem very high-risk, highlighting their defense has not been improved. Relentless pressure on the quarterback made the secondary’s job easier last season, but the bar has been set very high. Their defense was the deciding factor in a number of wins, and this standard has slightly slipped this season which has them 12th overall in opposition passing yards, compared to top 5 last season. This season thus far has seen the defensive unit slip, and in the coming month they need to prevent these defensive lapses and show the opponents no mercy to repeat last season’s success.
2010 OVERALL NFL RANKINGS TO DATE
Statistical Category | Rank |
Passing Yards | 231.5 (18th Overall) |
Rushing Yards | 148.1 (2nd Overall) |
Opposition Passing Yards | 210.6 (10th Overall) |
Opposition Rushing Yards | 86.3 (4th Overall) |
Offense:
The Jets power rushing game was very effective last season, and led the NFL with 172.2 yards per game on average. This season the Jets rushing yards is still effective at 148.1 yards at 2nd overall. Thomas Jones is a workhorse, with Leon Washington and 2nd year Shonn Greene also making significant contributions. Greene has shown he is a powerful runner whose best games came toward the end of the year. He supplanted Jones as the favored back for New York
Shonn Greene #23 Running Back
| 2010 Stats | ||
| ATT | YDS | TD |
| 140 | 575 | 1 |
The loss of Jones has been big, and Greene will has had a tough time filling his shoes. LaDainian Tomlinson was brought in to share the load, and has stepped up significantly despite their concerns about his decline last year.
LaDainian Tomlinson #21 RB
| 2010 Stats | ||
| ATT | YDS | TD |
| 166 | 741 | 5 |
And what does Sports Analytics Inc think of the young quarterback Mark Sanchez. Out of the madness has emerged a new truth about the New York Jets: This is Mark Sanchez's team. He's the face of the Jets and their personality, too.
Amid the crazy finishes of the past month, not only has Sanchez established himself as The Man, but his sudden development has changed the way the Jets play football. They still call themselves a ground-and-pound team, but they're not grounding and pounding opponents the way they did last season, and the defense isn't scaring the bejesus out of quarterbacks as it once did.
And that's OK, because the whole mix still is good enough as long as Sanchez continues to do what he's doing. It wasn't supposed to happen this quickly, only 25 starts into his career, but the Jets' Super Bowl dream rests on his right arm. Funny how quickly that changed. A year ago, they didn't want him to lose games. Now they need him to win them.
In the past four weeks, Sanchez has thrown for more yards (1,206) than any other quarterback in the league. Sanchez has earned the trust of the coaches, and that has made a huge difference in how they approach games. Because they're scoring more points than last season, increasing the margin for error, it has reduced the pressure on the defense.
If the defense had a bad day last season, it was curtains. The Jets were 0-5 in games when the opponent scored more than 17 points. This season they're 6-0 in those games, thanks to Sanchez and his big-play receivers, newcomer Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards.
The more ways you can win a game, the better off you'll be in January. It's a passing league, with recent history showing that run-oriented teams are less likely to win the Super Bowl than the multidimensional offenses.
Sanchez is backing up his prediction for the season. He arrived at training camp talking about how he was going to take ownership of the offense. It sounded good and made for a nice headline, but the words came off as hollow. An athlete doesn't announce himself as a leader; he earns it.
Now he has. Sanchez's fourth-quarter moxie is something else. When the Houston Texans took a four-point lead in the final minute Sunday, converting an interception into a field goal, Sanchez noticed the stadium was starting to empty out.
What has been hurting the Jets in not finishing teams off has been the Jets' lack of quality receiving targets. Tight end Dustin Keller has emerged as a reliable target over the middle, but Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are too inconsistent, and there is very little depth behind them.
Even with the addition of a quality receiver, second year players Greene and Sanchez will be the key for the Jets offense in 2010. Last year it was pass, run, run, run, run. This year to date the 9-2 start has been a little more conventional with many passes being made and the receivers holding up.
The Jets will be right there if New England slips up, all will be more understood come Monday night against the Patriots, and we will see if the Jets can silence their critics.
