Fevola - What should Brisbane Lions do?

Unfortunately at Sports Analytics INC, we hoped to be writing about Fevola in a better light for the start of 2011. However on New Years Eve, Brendan Fevola was locked up after being charged with drunk and disorderly in Fortitude Valley in Brisbane's somewhat seedy area. Whilst this news should not shock the average AFL punter, it brings the question to light what should the Brisbane Lions do?


At Sports Analytics INC we provide a look at what sacking or keeping him would do to the Lions season tactically for 201


Sacking him: To send Fevola packing and ending his career as an AFL footballer will likely have disastrous effects to the Lions season for 2011. Sources within the Lions say whilst Fevola was in rehab from off-season operations on his troublesome groin, Fevola believed he was more free than he'd been since he kicked his 90 plus goals for Carlton. Combine this with the Lions losing Henderson, Jarrad Brennan in the past two years, and there is not a lot of support for an ageing and injury prone Jonathan Brown up forward. 


Furthermore in a Rugby dominant town, if the Lions have another disastrous season with the introduction of the Gold Coast to the competition and membership and sponsorship issues off-field could exist in a market that is likely to steal the 'lions' share of the lucrative marketing dollars. 


Statistically speaking, the Lions would miss out in 2011 on the following:
- A minimum of 48 goals: Fevola had a poor season playing on one leg for most of the season and was in a new system that had terrible disposal. This year must get better
- A leading target of at a minimum of 6 times per game totalling almost 132 leading targets up forward to provide relief for Jonathan Brown
- A minimum of 28 inside forward 50 tackles. Admittedly this needs to improve 
- A career conversion of goals of 64%


This would create a big gaping hole, given the Lions do not have much potency outside of Brown, Fevola and some small forwards which are sporadic in form and goals kicked


Retaining Him: The big downside of keeping him for the Lions, is the constant media scrutiny, the constant inability to stay out of trouble and the booming contract of $950,000 he stands to earn next year due to a back loaded contract. This could provide big cap relief to the Lions who are known to be heavily close the the salary cap. This could free up money to retain Daniel Rich who is out of contract at the end of the year, and try and lure a couple of big names north with the skills that supersede their reputations this time round. 


Retaining him would also bring the statistics highlighted above and provide much relief for a Jonathan Brown who struggles to stay on the park, but in the cold light of the day, the Brisbane Lions need to cut their losses right now and think about the commercial dollar and viability of repairing a brand that will be under pressure now the Gold Coast Suns have arrived 

Fevola when in action, source AFL.com

Finally, one needs to ask, despite Fevola being a 29 year adult on good money, with the number of problems Fevola has had with drinking, gambling, and finding all sorts of trouble, why the Lions would not have multiple minders for him ensuring at festive periods or times when troubled individuals should not be alone. 


At Sports Analytics INC, it's time Brisbane moved on from the Fevola experiment, but it's crucial the club put in place facilities to help this troubled man start the next chapter.