NBA Weekly Rankings: It's Celtic Green at the Top of the Table

The past week we've witnessed a lot play in the NBA that has made analysts and fans stand up. There are four teams on hot winning streaks: Dallas - 12 wins, Boston - 10 wins, Miami - 8 wins, New York - 7 wins with each team playing inspired basketball.


Let's start with Dallas: The Mavericks have had their best start to a season since 2002/03 when they used to have amazing battles with San Antonio in the playoff conference finals. Dirk Nowitzki is having his best and most efficient season ever, and the deep team have finally clicked to get their 'pass to find the best man' game going. The inclusion of Tyson Chandler has also brought energy, and defense that changes many interior shots, and allows Nowitzki to clean up on the boards without boxing out. 


Boston are the most impressive team this week in the weekly rankings, solely based on their statistical output. Their defense is the league's best, with the return to form by Kevin Garnett on the defensive end and the long-armed defenders on the perimeter stifling opposition offense. This was evidenced in their win yesterday over Charlotte keeping them to a season low 62 points. 


As for Miami, we are still skeptical at Sports Analytics Inc, however you cannot dispute an 8-game winning streak even if the calibre of the teams they've beaten are predominantly sub-par. Miami has the 2nd best defense in the league for points against despite having no major interior defensive threat and their ability to turn the ball over in half court and fast-break to the rim has been nothing short of remarkable. The only concerns Sports Analytics has that come playoff time, when games are won and lost in the half court game that they may fall short. 


Finally of the streakers, New York, are playing inspired basketball. The two-man game between Felton and Stoudemire is one of the most pleasant surprises of the season thus far. Two free agents in the Summer have banded together to give this basketball mecca hope for the first time in 8 years. Furthermore Stoudemire is claiming MVP chants with 8 straight games of over 30 points. The big test comes this week with Boston and Miami waiting in the wings. 

As for the Sports Analytics INC weekly rankings driven by our deep statistical analysis formula, here they are:

Team	PPG	Opp PPG	Off Eff	Def Eff	W	L	Streak Points	Perf Points	Weekly Ranking
Boston	101	91.9	107.1	96.9	19	4	100	651.150	1
Dallas	98.4	92.6	106.4	99.1	19	4	120	630.000	2
San Antonio	106.9	97.6	110	100.2	19	3	40	603.650	3
Miami	100.6	92.0	108.5	97.8	17	8	80	568.810	4
LA Lakers	107.8	99.4	110.7	102.7	17	7	10	523.280	5
Utah	100.6	96.8	105.7	102.6	17	8	-10	439.540	6
New York	108	106.3	108.9	105.6	16	9	80	436.540	7
Chicago	100	98.9	102.4	100.4	14	8	50	415.230	8
Atlanta	99.2	91.9	106.7	103.4	16	9	10	438.780	9
Orlando	97.4	90.8	105.8	97.5	15	8	-40	335.920	10
Portland	95.2	95.6	103.4	104.1	12	11	40	334.210	11
New Orleans	94.8	91.8	102.6	99.1	14	9	-20	332.240	12
Oklahoma	103.3	103.4	105.6	105.2	16	8	20	318.560	13
Denver	105	103.2	106.2	103.7	14	9	-10	312.940	14
Indiana	100.5	97.7	102.9	100.7	11	11	-10	225.660	15
Memphis	100.9	102.9	103.2	105.9	10	14	20	220.700	16
Phoenix	108.8	109.9	109.8	110	11	12	-30	199.500	17
Houston	105.3	105.7	106.1	107.4	9	13	10	189.310	18
Milwaukee	91.2	93.0	96.8	99.6	9	13	20	168.980	19
Toronto	101.5	104.2	104.1	108	9	15	10	154.010	20
Philadelphia	98.3	98.8	103.2	102.9	8	15	10	149.790	21
Charlotte	95.1	97.0	101.7	103.7	8	15	-20	125.160	22
Golden State	101.4	107.0	103.1	109	8	15	-60	56.060	23
Sacramento	95	101.0	99.9	106.4	5	16	-10	52.640	24
Detroit	93.2	99.7	100.1	107.7	7	18	-40	-8.490	25
LA Clippers	96.8	102.8	100.3	108	5	19	-20	-11.510	26
Washington	98.1	106.6	100.6	109.5	6	16	-40	-15.150	27
New Jersey	93.6	99.0	100.4	105.9	6	18	-70	-26.170	28
Minnesota	102.3	109.4	100.6	108.3	6	18	-10	-48.730	29
Cleveland	93.9	102.4	98.1	107.9	7	16	-70	-58.070	30

GSP wins in lopsided battle

Earlier in the day Sports Analytics Inc broke down the strengths and weaknesses of both Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck. As a result of their rematch, the strengths, tactics and gameplan of the man they call GSP rang true, confirming this man is the best MMA fighter on the planet, pound for pound that is. 


As explained in our preview piece, GSP's strength of the straight punch and ability to stand up and fight won him the match. It ultimately was St. Pierre's left jab that obliterated Koscheck, closing up his eye, blurring his vision and preventing him to counter-attack due to trying to over-protect his black swollen eye. This tactic was evermore important given Koscheck's stand up game consists of mainly round punches giving GSP an ability to get through Koscheck's defense, and bang him up. 


Kosheck countered with a couple of take-downs of his own, and the two were tied in take-downs by round 4 however the damage GSP inflicted from his attack just morphed Koscheck's efforts. In fact at the end of the 4th round, the ring-side physician was required to inspect his eye closer with Koscheck wincing in extreme pain when the eye socket was pushed. Seeing this at the break, must have only inspired GSP to try and end the fight in the 5th round, but credit to Koscheck's toughness he could not be put away. 


For GSP this was sweet revenge for the man that showed little class and respect during the Ultimate Fighter series when both men opposed each other as coaches of the new breed class. 


So one might ask at Sports Analytics Inc, what does this mean for GSP? This fight is further evidence of a man that has become the perennial mixed martial arts fighter pound for pound. Furthermore GSP has not lost a round in his last 8 fights, which shows his ability to play multiple game-plans, and his unbelievable conditioning means GSP is undisputed the best pound for pound MMA fighter going around today. At Sports Analytics we congratulate GSP, as he has come along way since the days when Matt Hughes submitted GSP in a first round fight. 

Koscheck on the receiving end, source Yahoo! Sports

As for Koscheck, a great fighter in his own right, he needs to knuckle down and rebound from this defeat in bigger, better and more humble style. Big question marks were asked of his defense, and ability to fight the good fight standing up. He needs to go back to drawing board and find new innovative ways to fight with more avenues to fight tactically if he is a realistic chance of ever coming out on top against GSP.

Who is the NBA MVP - A quarter of the way into the Season...

At Sports Analytics INC, we believe after a quarter of the way through the season, it's important to think about who is the best of the best after 20+ games into the NBA season. This season the usual suspect's production whilst still effective is a little off, so analysts and sports fans might be a little surprised with the list we've compiled

Dirk Nowitzki

G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	36.1	24.7	7.5	2.2	0.7	0.8	.560	.395	.856

Dirk has been a top ten player in the NBA for the past 6-8 seasons peaking back in 2007 when he became the first European basketballer to be named MVP. This season the Mavericks have been playing inspired basketball currently on a 12-game winning streak and Dirk posting more efficient numbers this season than his MVP season. The most damning stat is Dirk is shooting a staggering 58.9% from the field during the past 12 wins

Amare Stoudemire

G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
23	37.1	25.7	9.1	2.3	1.0	1.9	.531	.556	.781

Seven straight games of 30+ points, six games total of 30 points, 10 rebounds (vs. eight in whole 2009-10) whilst the Knicks are currently on a 7 game winning streak and their best record a quarter of the way in since 2002. Over the past 12 games, Stoudemire has averaged 29.9 points and 10.2 rebounds, while shooting 58.3 percent from the field to help the Knicks go 11-1.

Derrick Rose

G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
19	38.7	25.1	4.3	8.2	1.1	0.6	.456	.372	.774

Rose has taken his game to another level this season and has carried the Bulls with Boozer missing much of the first quarter of the season. Over the Summer Rose developed a jump shot and this allows him to blow by defenders who overplay him with his sublime skills to get to the hoop and score. Rose is arguably the best small man since Allen Iverson to get banged up on the way to the hoop and score. The only player in the NBA averaging at least 25 points and 8.0 assists.

.

That's right, Sports Analytics believes at this point there are 3 contenders for MVP. Honourable mentions are Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Russell Westbrook and co, but these stars are still lacking the night in night out consistency which the above 3 are bringing on a constant basis and carrying their teams on their back...

Stay tuned for mid-year to see if the second tier bang down the door and widen the race to the NBA Most Valuable Player

GSP vs. Koscheck - Two Polar Opposites Collide

Today, in Montreal at the Bell Centre, in George St. Pierre's hometown, he fights his arch enemy Josh Koscheck. After GSP won the first battle, at Sports Analytics INC we look at the strengths and weaknesses of each and will provide a review of the fight...


(1) Athleticism:
Both these guys are athletic specimens, which makes for a great fight.

GSP: Speed, endurance, power... these are probably GSP’s #1 attributes; he uses his cardio, muscular endurance, and strength to push the pace and physicality of fights. This (and great balance) also allow him to maintain top position during GnP by staying very active and constantly improving his position. GSP has been adding bit more muscle mass lately, and will expect to be fighting close to 190 on fight night (3-7 lbs more than he has through most of his career). This may aid his power or negatively impact his cardio – if there is any other WW fighter that can push the pace on GSP, it is Koscheck, a phenomenal athlete himself.

Koscheck: Koscheck can probably match GSP in strength and explosiveness, and may even surpass him in cardio and speed. Kos has explosive takedowns, aided by his great speed and power. Koscheck has great balance and is hard to escape if he is focused on maintaining top control

Both have similar hand speed (very good, but not spectacular), with Kos putting more emphasis on power and GSP more on accuracy and range striking. I would suggest that GSP has better accuracy in both punching and kicking.


(2) Striking:
Koscheck has improved his standup over the years, but is still the less technical striker. Kos is more willing to throw power shots (primarily punches), GSP more focused on accuracy.

GSP: GSP likes to focus on movement, pace, and distance control. His lack of pure knockout power seems to stem from the choice to be light on the feet and move rather than plant the feet for big bombs, almost a defence-first approach. He has a real mix of styles that tends to confuse opponents, including classic boxing punches and jab, MT strikes and footwork, Karate low- and switch-kicks, TKD spinning back kick, plus some classic kickboxing... all mixed with effective feints with both legs and feet. The ever-present threat of takedowns makes his standup even more effective. GSP has good technical striking skills, but not spectacular – his angles and footwork appear to have benefitted in the last 3+ years from more professional boxing and MT coaching. His hand speed is very good but not incredible, his kicking is very good, particularly his low kicks. He mixes many different kicks and strikes effectively, making it hard to anticipate his attack. Thanks to his great sprawl, he can normally strike when he wants to without a lot of fear of being taken down – something that will be force to change in this fight as Kos will most likely be shooting fast and frequent. I think his striking is a little methodical (or rehearsed), and he shies away from fighting in the pocket, which is understandable given his advantage in technical striking, especially with his long leg reach.

GSP’s MT keeps improving, and he has been working on his technical and power boxing as well. If he keeps up with these two striking styles, we will likely see more emphasis on head movement over the footwork-based defence he uses now (natural for Karate fighters, GSP’s first style). If GSP keeps his head still, Kos can find it. Conversely, GSP has a fantastic straight right – if Kos leans into his punches like he tends to do, GSP can find home all day for that punch (and an uppercut, although GSP rarely uses one).

Koscheck: Koscheck uses a modified kickboxing style, under the tutelage of Javier Mendez. Kos is most dangerous at middle-distance striking, throwing hard hooks and overhand rights. He has a tendency to lean in on his punches, something that GSP can exploit. Kos pays for his power with less mobile footwork than GSP, but actually has decent head movement and the threat of his very quick shoot gives him extra leeway in his striking. Koscheck’s overhand right is properly dismissed as fairly predictable, but it is a devastating punch if he can land it, and it certainly forces the opponent to back away. Koscheck has shown effective but not devastating GnP, generally happy to land short punches and elbows from a dominant top position. Kos’s tendency to lean forward also puts a lot of weight on his front leg, making it a vulnerable target for GSP’s kicks.

(3) Grappling:
An area GSP has had advantage over most opponents, but Koscheck is possibly the only opponent at WW that can challenge GSP in this area and force him onto the defensive.

GSP: GSP has great wrestling skills – both offensive and defensive, which allow him to dictate when and where the fight hits the mat – his largest advantage overall in MMA. He has good top-position balance and doesn’t get swept easily. His BJJ is very solid, but like his striking, very technical and methodical rather than intuitive and fluid. Thanks to good top control, cautious attacks and great strength, he has extremely effective submission defence. He is a BJJ black belt, sponsored both by his Gracie Barra instructor as well as Renzo Gracie. GSP is in the top 2-3% in almost every grappling category: takedown %, takedown defense %, guard passing, and escapes from bottom position. The one potential hole is submission defense once in a vulnerable position (i.e. if how he defends an RNC if put in that position), which is untested at this point. Kos is not a really technical submission guy however. One big plus for GSP: he is so active on top that he rarely gets stood up when fighting within a guard. This has the effect of wearing out his opponents and causing them to make errors. It also provides clear evidence of “Octagon control” for the judges.

Koscheck has the ability to put GSP on his back, something increasingly improbable in MMA. That fact alone allows for the possibility of Kos wearing GSP down, gaining points, and doing meaningful damage while on top – all the things that GSP normally does to his opponents. We will likely see how good GSP’s game from his back is in this fight.

Some fun facts: GSP’s takedowns and takedown defense are getting legendary: he has an astonishing 87% takedown success rate (68 of 78) in his 22 fights, and as mentioned earlier, passes guard almost every time. He has defended >85% (41 of 48) of all takedown attempts, which is remarkable when you consider the calibre of wrestlers he has faced in his career.

Koscheck: Koscheck’s grappling pedigree is well known. 4x Div-1 NCAA All-American, national champion, never finished lower than 4th in nationals. Add to that his brown belt in BJJ (technically, Guerrilla Jiu Jitsu, Camarillo’s no-gi offense-forward judo-BJJ hybrid fighting style), and Koscheck is a real threat on the ground. He has a single-to-double-leg takedown that is nearly impossible to defend, so if he gets a leg, look out. That may also impact GSP’s willingness to throw anything but low leg kicks.

In grappling (Wrestling and BJJ) Koscheck is more impulsive than methodical in his ground fighting, looking for openings from strikes to advance, and covering up and escaping more than attacking from the bottom. Kos can certainly escape from beneath GSP, if the fight ends up there.

At times, Kos has shown inclination to become a “sprawl and brawler” – a style that many think could be GSP’s kryptonite – but I don’t think Kos can risk that approach this fight. Overall, Kos will certainly be a challenge to GSP’s wrestling.

(4) Game Plan/Preparation:
Greg Jackson and Firas Zahabi behind GSP, Bob Cook/Mendez/Camarillo behind Koscheck. All GREAT coaches, and honestly I think they match up well. The difference here is really the tools they have to work with.

GSP: Thanks to his other attributes, GSP usually has the luxury of dictating the location, style, and pace of fight with most opponents. He and Greg Jackson do a very good job of analysing the relative strengths and weaknesses, and coming up with a good game plan. Given the result of the first Serra fight, where his game plan was non-existent, I think this is a critical component of his success, and makes the partnership with Jackson extremely important. Interestingly, every interview I have seen with his trainers (Renzo Gracie, Greg Jackson, Phil Nurse, etc) all say the same thing: he is constantly seeking advice on how to improve and training hardest in his weaknesses. If he keeps doing that, he should be ever more difficult to game plan against. GSP clearly anticipates Kos to throw every wrestling trick in the book at him, and should be prepared for an ultra-aggressive takedown attack from Koscheck – time will tell if that works (offense often being the best defense).

Koscheck: AKA have done a great job with Koscheck in filling in his striking and submission weaknesses. That being said, he has fewer options to win the fight than GSP does. If he can take GSP down, he can tire him out; if he can turn the fight into a brawl, he has an advantage; if he can land a hard punch or kick, he can turn the course of the fight... but his bread and butter is wrestling, and I would expect AKA to fashion a strategy on takedowns, wrestling scrambles, and power punches to close the gap.. I would expect them to come up with some surprises in this fight – efforts to take GSP into uncomfortable zones, pressing the action early to try to cause some mistakes... no one knows, but expect aggression as a key part of the plan.

Is this the end for Anthony Mundine? Sports Analytics Inc says yes on the Global circuit

Last night, Anthony Mundine was floored by a nobody. The Contender TV series winner Garth Wood, a former NRL rugby player KO'd Anthony Mundine in the 5th round. In five rounds, Garth Wood went from a nobody to a somebody. For all Mundine's critics of fighting nobodies and Australian hacks, but forging a successful business nonetheless, the business strategy unravelled last night at the ACER arena in Sydney. This shock upset to Anthony Mundine proved a few things at Sports Analytics Inc that will no doubt create a huge barrier for 'The Man' to overcome if he ever intends on becoming a global boxer.

Mundine knocked out last night. Source Daily Telegraph

The fight in the first four rounds saw more of grapple wrestling match from Garth Wood, resulting in Mundine sending many complaints to the referee about the fight. However, within the Garth Wood camp this fight went exactly as planned. Wood gave Mundine no room to expose his quick feet, and Wood jammed Mundine up preventing Mundine to work his strength of the 'jab and move' to his effect. 


Due to the grappling and wrestling tactics of Wood, he received a nasty head clash that resulted in a cut above his left eye. This had no impact or bearing on the match with Wood in the 5th round, 58 seconds in, connecting Mundine with a beautiful left hook to mid-section which forced Mundine to crouch over and created an opening for Wood to connect a left hook to the head, which send Mundine down for the count. 


Since Mundine's loss to Kessler in Sydney years ago, we've not seen a boxer connect to Mundine with any significance. Last night we saw that if you connect a heavy hit to Mundine's head, he will always be in trouble.


Looking at Mundine's record of 18 straight wins against Australian opposition (primarily up-and-comers or has-beens), the jury was already out before last night's fight. Mundine, within boxing circles, had been renowned for fighting against fighters below his class, without pursuing the global stage. 


Had Mundine come out on top of last night's fight he was intending to relocate to Los Angeles and challenge a fight with WBA light-middleweight champion Rigoberto Alvarez early next year. These plans now are in tatters. Mundine's credibility whilst always shakey with his decisions on who he fights, must be even more shakey, now he has lost to what many people deemed a 'nobody' in Garth Wood. 


A further damning statistic, Sports Analytics Inc has stumbled across is that Mundine is the only fighter that has won more than 20 fights by knockout and lost fewer than 5 fights, has not ventured to the US to fight the best. This statistic shows that whilst Mundine will go down as a respected fighter, he will always have an asterisk next to his name that says:


'* Never ventured to the big stage to fight the best of the best'


At Sports Analytics INC, Mundine will now only be known as a respectable fighter, who handpicked opponents below his class. However it's fair to say at Sports Analytics Inc, 'The Man' handpicked wrong this time.  

England's discipline is far better than Australia's

After spending the field watching England's top order batsmen send the cricket ball to all parts of the field, many experts are critiquing the Australian bowling attack's poor performance. In a previous article at Sports Analytics, we identified how the Australian bowling attack needed to bowl to the English batsmen and have a definitive plan. Whilst the Australian's have not adhered to this plan in the slightest, at Sports Analytics Inc we thought we could not provide analytics of the Australian bowling attack without doing the same for the Australian batsmen. 


Despite the Ashes series only being 1 and half tests old, we've seen some big technical deficiencies in many of the Australian batsmen, which has further placed enormous pressure on the Australian bowlers because on flat wickets, the bowlers have not had enough runs to defend. 


The Australian batsmen continually fall to the full pitched swinging ball early in an innings. Why is this you might ask? The major problem in this instance is for so long Australian batsmen have developed a mind frame of coming in and playing aggressive from ball one. This mindset has worked wonders for Ricky Ponting and his old team mates of Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer and co. However opposing attacks these days have enhanced the quality of their deliveries. 


The Australian batsmen need to understand that when you enter the arena as a batsmen the first thing you must do is get your eye in. Play conservatively and pay utmost respect to the bowler until you work out the pitch conditions, the bowling speed, the movement. Far too many times in the past 12-18 months, Ponting, Clarke, Katich, and Watson to a lesser extent, attempt to play heavy handed shots too early in an innings, which is their ultimate downfall. This is Test Match cricket that goes for 5 long days. One might ask what is the hurry initially? Well there should not be one, until the batsmen is 'in' as they say. 


Australian coach Tim Neilson should instigate a rule to his top order batsmen that for the first 6 overs minimum, each batsmen must play with a straight bat, ultra defensive nature and protect his stumps. Attacking on the first ball to drive through covers to a swinging delivery is just tempting fate too often, especially when the likes of Ponting and Clarke are attempting these shots on the run. 


At Sports Analytics Inc, we believe Punter and his cronies could be best served looking at tape of the English batsmen early in their innings and notice the likes of Cook, Trott and co. are getting themselves in and playing only shots against the bad balls early on, to acclimatise to the conditions before setting themselves for a big innings. 


The game of cricket is a holistic, cause and and effect game. These failures with the bat, have only compounded Australia's inability to bowl out the English because the Aussie batsmen have just not occupied the crease long enough when the pitch conditions are at their finest. 

Ponting surrendering his wicket to Anderson