Today, in Montreal at the Bell Centre, in George St. Pierre's hometown, he fights his arch enemy Josh Koscheck. After GSP won the first battle, at Sports Analytics INC we look at the strengths and weaknesses of each and will provide a review of the fight...
(1) Athleticism:
Both these guys are athletic specimens, which makes for a great fight.
GSP: Speed, endurance, power... these are probably GSP’s #1 attributes; he uses his cardio, muscular endurance, and strength to push the pace and physicality of fights. This (and great balance) also allow him to maintain top position during GnP by staying very active and constantly improving his position. GSP has been adding bit more muscle mass lately, and will expect to be fighting close to 190 on fight night (3-7 lbs more than he has through most of his career). This may aid his power or negatively impact his cardio – if there is any other WW fighter that can push the pace on GSP, it is Koscheck, a phenomenal athlete himself.
Koscheck: Koscheck can probably match GSP in strength and explosiveness, and may even surpass him in cardio and speed. Kos has explosive takedowns, aided by his great speed and power. Koscheck has great balance and is hard to escape if he is focused on maintaining top control
Both have similar hand speed (very good, but not spectacular), with Kos putting more emphasis on power and GSP more on accuracy and range striking. I would suggest that GSP has better accuracy in both punching and kicking.
(2) Striking:
Koscheck has improved his standup over the years, but is still the less technical striker. Kos is more willing to throw power shots (primarily punches), GSP more focused on accuracy.
GSP: GSP likes to focus on movement, pace, and distance control. His lack of pure knockout power seems to stem from the choice to be light on the feet and move rather than plant the feet for big bombs, almost a defence-first approach. He has a real mix of styles that tends to confuse opponents, including classic boxing punches and jab, MT strikes and footwork, Karate low- and switch-kicks, TKD spinning back kick, plus some classic kickboxing... all mixed with effective feints with both legs and feet. The ever-present threat of takedowns makes his standup even more effective. GSP has good technical striking skills, but not spectacular – his angles and footwork appear to have benefitted in the last 3+ years from more professional boxing and MT coaching. His hand speed is very good but not incredible, his kicking is very good, particularly his low kicks. He mixes many different kicks and strikes effectively, making it hard to anticipate his attack. Thanks to his great sprawl, he can normally strike when he wants to without a lot of fear of being taken down – something that will be force to change in this fight as Kos will most likely be shooting fast and frequent. I think his striking is a little methodical (or rehearsed), and he shies away from fighting in the pocket, which is understandable given his advantage in technical striking, especially with his long leg reach.
GSP’s MT keeps improving, and he has been working on his technical and power boxing as well. If he keeps up with these two striking styles, we will likely see more emphasis on head movement over the footwork-based defence he uses now (natural for Karate fighters, GSP’s first style). If GSP keeps his head still, Kos can find it. Conversely, GSP has a fantastic straight right – if Kos leans into his punches like he tends to do, GSP can find home all day for that punch (and an uppercut, although GSP rarely uses one).
Koscheck: Koscheck uses a modified kickboxing style, under the tutelage of Javier Mendez. Kos is most dangerous at middle-distance striking, throwing hard hooks and overhand rights. He has a tendency to lean in on his punches, something that GSP can exploit. Kos pays for his power with less mobile footwork than GSP, but actually has decent head movement and the threat of his very quick shoot gives him extra leeway in his striking. Koscheck’s overhand right is properly dismissed as fairly predictable, but it is a devastating punch if he can land it, and it certainly forces the opponent to back away. Koscheck has shown effective but not devastating GnP, generally happy to land short punches and elbows from a dominant top position. Kos’s tendency to lean forward also puts a lot of weight on his front leg, making it a vulnerable target for GSP’s kicks.
(3) Grappling:
An area GSP has had advantage over most opponents, but Koscheck is possibly the only opponent at WW that can challenge GSP in this area and force him onto the defensive.
GSP: GSP has great wrestling skills – both offensive and defensive, which allow him to dictate when and where the fight hits the mat – his largest advantage overall in MMA. He has good top-position balance and doesn’t get swept easily. His BJJ is very solid, but like his striking, very technical and methodical rather than intuitive and fluid. Thanks to good top control, cautious attacks and great strength, he has extremely effective submission defence. He is a BJJ black belt, sponsored both by his Gracie Barra instructor as well as Renzo Gracie. GSP is in the top 2-3% in almost every grappling category: takedown %, takedown defense %, guard passing, and escapes from bottom position. The one potential hole is submission defense once in a vulnerable position (i.e. if how he defends an RNC if put in that position), which is untested at this point. Kos is not a really technical submission guy however. One big plus for GSP: he is so active on top that he rarely gets stood up when fighting within a guard. This has the effect of wearing out his opponents and causing them to make errors. It also provides clear evidence of “Octagon control” for the judges.
Koscheck has the ability to put GSP on his back, something increasingly improbable in MMA. That fact alone allows for the possibility of Kos wearing GSP down, gaining points, and doing meaningful damage while on top – all the things that GSP normally does to his opponents. We will likely see how good GSP’s game from his back is in this fight.
Some fun facts: GSP’s takedowns and takedown defense are getting legendary: he has an astonishing 87% takedown success rate (68 of 78) in his 22 fights, and as mentioned earlier, passes guard almost every time. He has defended >85% (41 of 48) of all takedown attempts, which is remarkable when you consider the calibre of wrestlers he has faced in his career.
Koscheck: Koscheck’s grappling pedigree is well known. 4x Div-1 NCAA All-American, national champion, never finished lower than 4th in nationals. Add to that his brown belt in BJJ (technically, Guerrilla Jiu Jitsu, Camarillo’s no-gi offense-forward judo-BJJ hybrid fighting style), and Koscheck is a real threat on the ground. He has a single-to-double-leg takedown that is nearly impossible to defend, so if he gets a leg, look out. That may also impact GSP’s willingness to throw anything but low leg kicks.
In grappling (Wrestling and BJJ) Koscheck is more impulsive than methodical in his ground fighting, looking for openings from strikes to advance, and covering up and escaping more than attacking from the bottom. Kos can certainly escape from beneath GSP, if the fight ends up there.
At times, Kos has shown inclination to become a “sprawl and brawler” – a style that many think could be GSP’s kryptonite – but I don’t think Kos can risk that approach this fight. Overall, Kos will certainly be a challenge to GSP’s wrestling.
(4) Game Plan/Preparation:
Greg Jackson and Firas Zahabi behind GSP, Bob Cook/Mendez/Camarillo behind Koscheck. All GREAT coaches, and honestly I think they match up well. The difference here is really the tools they have to work with.
GSP: Thanks to his other attributes, GSP usually has the luxury of dictating the location, style, and pace of fight with most opponents. He and Greg Jackson do a very good job of analysing the relative strengths and weaknesses, and coming up with a good game plan. Given the result of the first Serra fight, where his game plan was non-existent, I think this is a critical component of his success, and makes the partnership with Jackson extremely important. Interestingly, every interview I have seen with his trainers (Renzo Gracie, Greg Jackson, Phil Nurse, etc) all say the same thing: he is constantly seeking advice on how to improve and training hardest in his weaknesses. If he keeps doing that, he should be ever more difficult to game plan against. GSP clearly anticipates Kos to throw every wrestling trick in the book at him, and should be prepared for an ultra-aggressive takedown attack from Koscheck – time will tell if that works (offense often being the best defense).
Koscheck: AKA have done a great job with Koscheck in filling in his striking and submission weaknesses. That being said, he has fewer options to win the fight than GSP does. If he can take GSP down, he can tire him out; if he can turn the fight into a brawl, he has an advantage; if he can land a hard punch or kick, he can turn the course of the fight... but his bread and butter is wrestling, and I would expect AKA to fashion a strategy on takedowns, wrestling scrambles, and power punches to close the gap.. I would expect them to come up with some surprises in this fight – efforts to take GSP into uncomfortable zones, pressing the action early to try to cause some mistakes... no one knows, but expect aggression as a key part of the plan.
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