Crystal Ball: AFL Ladder after 4 Rounds 2011

At Sports Analytics, it is time for some crystal balling now that the AFL 2011 Premiership Season is just around the corner. To provide some analytical fun, Sports Analytics Inc has decided to predict the ladder after 4 Rounds based on the fixture and where teams are at relative to their pre-seasons they have had.

Sports Analytics Inc highlights that after 4 rounds there are some surprises but also some expectations. The big 3 in Collingwood, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs will likely be at the top end of the ladder, however a pretty miserable draw for the Tigers will see them languishing at the bottom but with some good upside for improvement from Hardwick's men.

Early surprises will see West Coast not a cellar dweller due to a favourable draw against weaker travelling sides to Subiaco and the Geelong Football Club will be struggling coming to terms with the no Gary Ablett. The biggest surprise will likely come from West Lakes - with Neil Craig's men undefeated and playing strong attacking football both at the ball and at the man.

As follows, Sports Analytics Inc tips the following for the first 4 rounds:

Round 1

Venue	Team	Team	Who Wins
MCG	Carlton	Richmond	Carlton’s midfield is too strong
MCG	Geelong	St. Kilda	St. Kilda easily beat a rebuilding and undermanned Geelong
ES	Collingwood	Port	Collingwood dismantle Port by 10 goals
AS	Adelaide	Hawthorn	Adelaide upset in Round 1 to beat Hawks by 4 goals
G	Brisbane	Fremantle	Brisbane provide another surprise against a Fremantle side that is underdone in their midfield
ES	Essendon	Western Bulldogs	The Bomber’s pre-season form counts for little as the Bulldogs mean business and force many turnovers
MCG	Melbourne	Sydney	Melbourne win a close one in the game of the Round
Subi	West Coast	North Melbourne	West Coast win at home against an injury depleted Kangaroos
BYE	Gold Coast

Round 2

Venue	Team	Team	Who Wins
MCG	St. Kilda	Richmond	St. Kilda’s bigger bodies win out holding to to a below par performance
MCG	North Melbourne	Collingwood	Collingwood win by 10 goals for consecutive weeks
AS	Port	West Coast	Port easily beat West Coast by 6 Goals at home
G	Gold Coast	Carlton	Carlton win 2nd week in a row against debut GC
Subi	Fremantle	Geelong	Fremantle create headaches for Geelong with dash and run
ES	Western Bulldogs	Brisbane	Western Bulldogs humiliate Brisbane by 90+ points
ANZ	Sydney	Essendon	Sydney are overrun by Essendon in the 4th quarter for Hird’s first win
MCG	Hawthorn	Melbourne	Hawthorn push aside Melbourne with Hodge and Franklin hitting form
BYE	Adelaide

Round 3

Venue	Team	Team	Who Wins
MCG	Collingwood	Carlton	Collingwood comfortably beat Carlton by 6 goals in a blockbuster
MCG	Western Bulldogs	Gold Coast	Bulldogs thump a young GC on the road for the first time
AS	Adelaide	Fremantle	Fremantle struggling on the road again and lose to the Crows
MCG	Richmond	Hawthorn	The Tigers push Hawthorn all the way but just fall short
Subi	West Coast	Sydney	West Coast defend their patch much to the surprise of most beating Sydney
MCG	Melbourne	Brisbane	Melbourne win by 5+ goals against the struggling Lions
SS	Geelong	Port	Geelong thump the travelling Port
ES	Essendon	St. Kilda	St. Kilda win their first game against Essendon in 3 seasons to remain undefeated
BYE	North Melbourne

Round 4

Venue	Team	Team	Who Wins
MCG	Richmond	Collingwood	Collingwood win in a closer than thought match
AU	Hawthorn	West Coast	Hawthorn humiliate a tired West Coast by 70+ points
MCG	Carlton	Essendon	Essendon continue to have the wood over Carlton in Home and Away winning by 3 goals
SCG	Sydney	Geelong	This goes down to the wire with Geelong winning by less than a kick
AS	Port	Adelaide	Showdown is fiery with Adelaide taking the chocolates
G	Gold Coast	Melbourne	Melbourne hang on against an improving Gold Coast as Ablett hits form
Subi	Fremantle	North Melbourne	Fremantle thump an injury depleted North
BYE	Brisbane St Kilda Western Bulldogs

#	Team	Win	Loss	Draw	Bye	%
1	Collingwood	4	0	0	0	155
2	Western Bulldogs	3	0	0	1	134
3	St. Kilda	3	0	0	1	127
4	Adelaide	3	0	0	1	115
5	Hawthorn	3	1	0	0	109
6	Melbourne	3	1	0	0	119
7	Essendon	2	2	0	0	104
8	Carlton	2	2	0	0	101
9	Fremantle	2	2	0	0	96
10	West Coast	2	2	0	0	91
11	Geelong	2	2	0	0	86
12	Port Adelaide	1	3	0	0	86
13	Brisbane	1	3	0	0	79
14	North Melbourne	0	3	0	1	78
15	Sydney	0	4	0	0	93
16	Gold Coast	0	3	0	1	84
17	Richmond	0	4	0	0	78