At Sports Analytics Inc we have looked into the contenders and the pretenders for the AFL Premiership 2011 season. Unfortunately for the Saints faithful there will be no heavenly 2011...This is why:
Injection of new talent: Ross Lyon being from the Sydney Swans mould was always forced to rebuild on the fly to prevent bottoming out. Because of such a strong nucleus of star players from 1-8 on the list, there has been a view that topping up players, and not trading for high draft picks means the next crop of players developing through is very thin. If you're looking for improvement with the St. Kilda list, there is no identifiable players between the ages of 18-22 that look like being the Steele Sidebottom or Dayne Beams' that Collingwood have. It's arguable that Jack Steven and David Armitage could provide this injection of new talent, however both these players are lesser prototypes of players like Lenny Hayes, which means they will struggle to get effective game time in the positions they are most suited to, to effect games. In terms of the even younger brigade Jamie Cripps is the only likely type that could step straight into senior football but he is hardly going to influence games. The same can be said for Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy at the key position posts. This means winning games will be left to the same crop of players who have been winning games the past few years.
Lack of pace: Ross Lyon after the grand final rematch said of pre-season the game has changed and St. Kilda need to be more attacking and display more flair. To effectively change this game plan, a football side needs pace and needs quality disposal. Both these traits were seen wanting in the Grand Final rematch which enabled Collingwood's backmen to easily win out against Riewoldt, Kosi and Gilbert. To effectively transform from a disciplined team defence orientation to an attack at all costs can only happen with more than one pre-season and an influx of new talent that have an abundance of pace and sublime skills to hit targets, so the team is not killed on turnovers.
Off-Field Turmoil: Regardless of how focused and disciplined a team is on the park, off-field distractions and personal hiccups impact performance. St. Kilda has to be commended for how well it has performed during the past two years with all the off-field turmoil it has endured, however the increase in incidents over the Summer has increased the pressure and scrutiny on a team that is so determined to take the next step. Imagine after round 5, St. Kilda are languishing and struggling with form. The knives will come out from the media and pressure will intensify and blame might start to be shifted to the culprits who have not adhered to the St. Kilda system creating in-fighting.
Transition from Defense and Offense: St. Kilda have been ranked the no.1 team the past 2 seasons for possession held and not turning the ball over. However this strength has contributed to a lack of moving the ball quickly forward to create easier opportunities for forwards and put opposition defense under pressure deep within their forward 50m. St. Kilda when they obtain possession rather than set up a structured foray forward need to be more pragmatic, unpredictable and move the ball forward. They need to run hard forward just like they are programmed to run back to get there defensive structures right. This is not likely to occur easily to a team that has been so drilled to play one way...
In summary, Sports Analytics Inc St.Kilda will likely fall short or even drop off this year due to the above mentioned drawbacks to their game style and play....
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