Who will be the next Manager in the Premier League to be sacked?

The Premier League is not a place for a Manager to seek employment if they are expecting job security. With the obvious exclusions of Arsene Wenger at Arsenal (14 years) and Sir Alex at Manchester United (24 years) the Manager with the closest tenure at the same club is David Moyes at Everton with 8 years of service under his belt. If teams are not performing the way the clubs board and fans expect them to the Manager is invariably the one to fall on his sword or be pushed onto it. There is simply too much at stake to attempt to ride out an extended form slump for teams at either end of the league. To further emphasise this trend 13 of the 20 current Managers employed by teams in the Premier League are either in their first or second seasons at the helm of a club.

With this in mind Sports Analytics INC decided to analyse each Premier Leagues team’s current league position and form and marry them up to the aforementioned board and fans expectations in an attempt to predict the next Manager to be lining up in the unemployment queue.

Let’s do this based each team’s current league position…

1. Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson

The Red Devils are sitting pretty at the top of the league with a game in hand, have the league best goal difference and are the only team not to have tasted defeat this season. They may no longer be playing in the FA or league cups however are comfortably through to the final 16 of the Champions League where they will face French champions Marseille.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Sir Alex will leave Old Trafford when he chooses.

2. Arsenal, Arsene Wenger

For so long the Gunners have promised so much based on potential and talent alone. However this surely has to be the season they break their 5 season drought for silverware and win something to justify Wenger’s youth policy.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Although questions will start to be asked if the drought is not broken soon.

3. Manchester City, Roberto Mancini

Roberto Mancini has done an excellent job of steering the world’s richest team to within touching distance of the Premier League’s summit. Managing all those egos cannot have been easy, especially considering the surplus of international players City currently has in the stables that are not getting the regular starting roles they feel they deserve. A job that is only going to get more difficult with a number of other big names linked with January switches to the City of Manchester Stadium.

Likelihood to be sacked – Highly Unlikely, however nothing would surprise us

here at Sports Analytics INC when we are discussing Manchester City.

4. Chelsea, Carlo Ancelotti

The defending champions are currently experiencing their worst form slump since 1998. The only reason the find themselves in 4^th position is due to their sparkling start to the season. The fans at Stamford Bridge have become accustomed to winning in recent times and the board has a nasty habit of firing Managers when they don’t live up to these expectations.

Likelihood to be sacked – Decent chance. Unless the form slide can be addressed NOW then Ancelotti will become the next big name to have failed at Stamford Bridge.

5. Tottenham, Harry Redknapp

The Spurs are enjoying quite possibly their best ever season in the Premier League. Currently 5 points from the top of the league, still alive in the FA Cup and qualifying top of a Champions League group with World Champions Inter Milan as sparring partners is no mean feat. Not to mention the emergence of Gareth Bale as a genuine star and the astute purchase of the mercurial Rafael Van der Vaart.

Likelihood to be sacked – No Chance. ‘Arry isn’t going anywhere.

6. Bolton, Owen Coyle

The Wanderers have excelled this season adding a high tempo attacking style of play to their renowned physicality. Bolton have the equally third highest goal tally this season to date with Swedish international Johan Elmander particularly excellent. The fact Chelsea have been sniffing around defensive wall Gary Cahill is no coincidence, he has been pivotal in rebounding defence into attack.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Coyle has transformed one Bolton into watchable in a very short period of time and with limited resources.

7. Sunderland, Steve Bruce

Of particular interest Bruce’s success at Sunderland will be to Newcastle considering he is a Geordie legend and the intense cross-town rivalry they enjoy. Admittedly, Bruce has had resources at his disposal and made more astute purchases than not, with Asamoah Gyan a revelation. The 3 – 0 win at Stamford Bridge has been the highlight of a decent season to date.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Even if Newcastle decided to get down on one knee and pop the question, it’s highly unlikely he would accept. Especially considering the resources and ongoing support he has had from the Sunderland boardroom, something he would not be granted at Newcastle.

8. Blackpool, Ian Holloway

Blackpool would top everyone’s list as the surprise of season 2010-11. Holloway has transformed what was essentially a team that limped into the Championship play-offs last season, by adopting a playing style that complimented his cattle and instilling a never-say-die attitude. I’m sure players will reconsider Ian’s advances when he next comes knocking.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Ian is much loved by the city of Blackpool and has created a real buzz.

9. Blackburn, Steve Kean

Rovers are deceptively high in the table, currently 3 points from 14^th having played a game extra then most of the teams below them. Positive thinking is what landed virgin first team Manager Steve Kean the job, taking over from big Sam Allardyce in the last few weeks. This makes it tough to gauge how long he will be given before he suffers the same fate as a chicken at the owners poultry firm Venky’s.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Unless Rovers are relegated Kean should ride out the season.

10. Stoke City, Tony Pullis

Stoke have literally wrestled the, “most physical team” in the league title from Bolton. Pullis has constructed a team capable of locking down all but the most capable Premier League attack, with a brand of hurly burly set piece football, and whilst not aesthetically pleasing it does generate results.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Pullis has made the most of what he has and isn’t going anywhere.

11. Everton, David Moyes

Everton have not performed as expected this season to date. Many had them tipped to shed their bridesmaids dress and finally solidify themselves in the top 6. If it hadn’t been for the excellent Tim Cahill who has scored 3 times as many goals as Everton’s strikers have generated combined, then there may have been a lot more pressure on Moyes’ shoulders.

Likelihood to be sacked – Unlikely. However, with Tim Cahill’s planned rendezvous with the Australian team in the Asian Cup in the new year, unless others start earning their keep questions may soon be asked.

12. Liverpool, Roy Hodgson

Where did it all go wrong at Anfield? The Kop have fond recent memories of pushing Manchester United and Chelsea all the way in the league and many extended cup runs. However the last 2 seasons have not unfolded as expected. In Roy’s defence he has inherited a team that he didn’t construct and who haven’t subscribed to his style of football.

Likelihood to be sacked – Just around the corner. Many are already calling for Hodgson’s head as Liverpool are currently in uncharted waters in the bottom half of the table.

13. Newcastle, Allan Pardew

Newcastle is about where everyone expected them to be this season. Mid table. With wins against both Liverpool and Arsenal to date and the emergence of as genuine number 9 for England in their ranks, Chris Haughton can rightfully feel confused as to why he is no longer patrolling the by-line at St. James’ Park. His successor, Allan Pardew should take note of the current owner’s propensity to change managers like his y-fronts.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. With 8 managerial changes in the past 4 years who would bet against Ashley changing his mind again?

14. West Bromwich Albion, Roberto Di Matteo

The perennial yo-yo team of the past decade, West Brom play an attractive passing game under Di Matteo that is beginning to deliver results. The Baggies have taken points away from home at both the Emirates and Old Trafford suggesting this season they may avoid another relegation scrap.

Likelihood to be sacked – Not Likely. Di Matteo is doing an excellent job at Albion with things looking bright for the future.

15. Aston Villa, Gerard Houllier

When Houllier took over from Martin O’Neill 10 minutes before the season started I’m sure he expected more from the team who finished 6^th last season then what he has received. Villa’s form this season has surprised all. Had it not been for the emergence of a Villa winger Marc Albrighton and the sustained good form of Stuart Downing Villa could be scrapping it out in the relegation zone.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Villa have the worst away record in the league and whilst Randy Lerner appreciates the need for continuity in management sooner or later he will remember the same team, minus James Milner, finished 6^th last season.

16. Wigan, Roberto Martinez

Having scored less goals then anyone else in the Premier League this season, Wigan’s top flight status in the foreseeable future is looking decidedly bleak. Simply put, Wigan try to play an up tempo attacking style without the personnel to get it done.

Likelihood to be sacked – Doubtful. Whilst Wigan are on the cusp of the relegation places, this is where they are expected to be.

17. Birmingham, Alex McLeish

Don’t let the Blues current League position fool you. They have been excellent this year taking not losing to any of the leagues big teams. They have 2 games in hand on the majority of the teams in their vicinity and have been good value in the majority of their fixtures. To take the next step they need some more firepower up front and to extend their superb home form onto the road.

Likelihood to be sacked – Not Likely. Stranger things have happened in football, though Sports Analytics INC do not think it will happen anytime soon.

18. Fulham, Mark Hughes

Under Roy Hodgson Fulham made steady progress up the league table and went on a giant killing run to the final of the UEFA Cup, and whilst they lost that game, seemingly good times where on the horizon. However, Liverpool came knocking after kicking their Benitez addition and Hodgson couldn’t say no to Red’s. Mark Hughes was quickly ushered in as his replacement and things just haven’t gone to plan.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Hughes simply hasn’t performed with the same playing staff as those Hodgson used to great effect during his tenure. The only real answer is management.

19. Wolverhampton, Mick McCarthy

Wolves are suffering from a serve bout of second season syndrome, a condition experienced by many teams who gain promotion from the Championship. McCarthy is a proud, passionate man who is trying to will mor e consistency out of his charges. However, he rarely has a plan B is plan A isn’t working.

Likelihood to be sacked – Unlikely. We wouldn’t be surprised either way.

20. West Ham, Avram Grant

Not even Robbie Keane’s likely loan arrival will inject the much needed life required to stay up this season. Grant has a list that would make many Premier League managers green with envy and yet cannot create a cohesive unit that generates the results required.

Likelihood to be sacked – Sooner then later. Porn magnate David Gold’s patience is wearing thing and we expect his head will be rolling very shortly.

Summation

At Sports Analytics INC we have our money on either Avram Grant or Roy Hodgson being the next Manager to be shown the door. Roman Ambramovich spent far too much time wooing Carlo Ancelotti and has spent piles of money paying out severed manager’s contracts to prematurely end Carlo’s stay at Chelsea. As for the other 2 expect heads to roll in January.

Happy New Years from all of us at Sports Analytics INC.

What do the Chelsea want in their Christmas stocking ?

WITH the silly season in full swing, at Sports Analytics INC we thought we would provide some insight into what each Premier League team wants in their Christmas stockings and what they are likely to receive. Many teams use the upcoming January transfer window as an opportunity to strengthen and either consolidate themselves as a title challenger or at the end of the spectrum simply stay out of the drop zone.

So here they are in no particular order…

Chelsea

What they want

Roman may have decided that the some of the billions lying around on his armada of luxury yachts needs to be allocated to making Chelsea deeper and more creative. As recently discussed here at Sports Analytics INC, we feel these are the 2 fundamental requirements to ensure Chelsea win silverware this season. The biggest areas of concern are centre back, central midfield and striker.

Central back candidates

John Terry is a magnificent leader. He is also on the wrong side of 30 getting slower by the day and having regular complaints with his fragile back. Alex and Ivanovic are quality centre backs, though lack genuine pace and can be exposed by an electric attack. With that in mind we would recommend;

- Simon Kjaer

- Diego Godin

- Stefan Radu

Central Midfield Candidates

We have been over this in our previous piece so let’s cut to the chase;

- Luka Modric

- Mesut Ozil

- Wesley Sneijder

- Yoann Gourcuff

- Marek Hamsik

Strikers

Long has Chelsea needed quality reinforcements up front to provide competition for Drogba and to a lesser extend Anelka. Kalou is a decent forward, yet cannot lead the line on his own and the other forwards in the stables have yet to take the training wheels off their bikes. They need a marquee player who will provide goals from day 1. Adriy Shevchenko need not apply. Here are a few guys who could;

- Sergio Aguero

- Karim Benzema

- Romelu Lukaku

- Papiss Demba Cisse

- Edin Dzeko

What they’ll get

Chelsea has been known to sign big names in January to secure silverware ala Nicholas Anelka in 2008, and we at Sports Analytics INC think this season will be no exception. Down back any one of the 3 recommended defenders fit the profile of what Chelsea need, young, hungry with a surplus of speed. We foresee Kjaer or Radu as the most likely and will cost Chelsea in the order of £10 – 15 Million pound range. A creative midfielder would be welcomed to Stamford Bride with open arms and a truckload of cash. We doubt any of the recommended candidates will be

moving in this transfer window as they are cup-tied, meaning they cannot play in the Champions League for Chelsea. Watch this space after the season draws to a close. In the striking department we can see either Aguero or Dzeko moving toLondon. Aguero may cost Ambramovich one of his yachts, yet would provide Chelsea with goals and the type of signing that fans get excited about. And Dzeko has recently said that he would welcome a scenery change away from struggling Wolfsburg. The bottom line at Stamford Bridge is that they need to spend money to remain contenders this season. Lets hopeChelsea’s Russian Santa is in the Christmas spirit this year.

What do Newcastle want in their Christmas Stocking ?

WITH the silly season in full swing, at Sports Analytics INC we thought we would provide some insight into what each Premier League team wants in their Christmas stockings and what they are likely to receive. Many teams use the upcoming January transfer window as an opportunity to strengthen and either consolidate themselves as a title challenger or at the end of the spectrum simply stay out of the drop zone.

So here they are in no particular order…

Newcastle

What they want

Even the most passionate Newcastle fan will admit that their beloved Magpies have overachieved to date this season. To this end the recent sacking of Chris Hughton has left us here at Sports Analytics INC scratching our heads. We do all know how owners like ‘yes’ men these days, when Middle Eastern and American Billionaires are buying clubs as toys. Pretending Newcastle owner and serial tight arse Mike Ashley has recently decided that to inflate the value of the club he needs to invest in players. A toon shopping list would most likely consist of, a right back and a speedy forward to support the excellent Andy Carroll.

Right Back Contenders

Let’s be honest. Sol Campbell no longer strikes fear in the hearts of strikers. He is more inclined to give Steve Harper heart palpitations then monster an on rushing Didier Drogba. Whilst Coloccini and Williamson have formed a decent partnership in the heart of defence, the big gap is currently at right back. We suggest;

- Micah Richards

Options up front

For Newcastle to continue their push to bring the bright lights of European football back to St. James, they need to provide Andy Carroll with a fast paced finisher. Shola is not this man. Our recommendations are;

- Robbie Keane

- Jermaine Defoe

- Emmanul Adebayor

- Hugo Rodallega

What they’ll get

Unfortunately for Newcastle fans Mr Ashley is still tighter then a ducks backside and Ikea type bargains is what they will be in the market for again. So cross of the ever versatile and under appreciated Micah Richards. We could see Robbie Keane swapping the bench at Tottenham for life on the Tyne provided he drops his current wages. Don’t be surprised to see a loan deal for one of Man City’s underutilised strikers or Wigan’s Hugo changing his scenery.

What do Man United want in their Christmas stocking ?

WITH the silly season in full swing, at Sports Analytics INC we thought we would provide some insight into what each Premier League team wants in their Christmas stockings and what they are likely to receive. Many teams use the upcoming January transfer window as an opportunity to strengthen and either consolidate themselves as a title challenger or at the end of the spectrum simply stay out of the drop zone.
So here they are in no particular order…

Man United

What they want...
The Glazer’s are tipped to finally offload the club to the cashed up Qataries, United could be expecting a transfer war chest to solidify their title credentials in the League and the Champion’s League. With this in mind they have been searching unsuccessfully for a while for suitable successors for Paul Scholes in the midfield and Edwin van der Sar between the posts.

Central midfield candidates
Paul Scholes is not an easy man to replace, which is why he is still bossing the United midfield at the ripe old age of 36. Anderson has shown form recently though serious question marks linger in the back of Sir Alex’s mind about the Brazilian’s suitability as a successor. Money is no object here though and there are a number of ready made replacements out there, namely;
- Luka Modric
- Andreas Iniesta
- Xavi
- Mesut Ozil
- Kaka

Goal Keeper replacements
To our knowledge (happy to be corrected) van der Sar is the oldest player currently plying his trade in the Premier League at 40 years young. United have tried unsuccessfully to find a protégé for a number of seasons trying Ben Foster and Tomasz Kuszczak with limited success. They have been tracking Shalke’s outstanding keeper Manuel Neuer for some time now and now Christmas seems as good a time as ever to pull the trigger.
- Manual Neuer
- Julio Cesar

What they’ll get...
As Ferguson has a preference towards English candidates and the ‘Red Devils’ are champions league contenders, potential candidates will not be cup tied. This rules out all the ‘fantasy’ replacements for Paul Scholes. Yet at Sports Analytics INC we wouldn’t be surprised if the Manual Neuer transfer eventuates. Expect United to have to outlay £ 20M + to land the Manual though…

Blockbuster Trade: Orlando Improve Scoring, Phoenix Improve Defense and Washington rid themselves of the Bad Boy

Overnight, the Orlando Magic acted on their poor form of late where they have lost 5 of the last 6 games and recent 1-3 West Coast road trip. Orlando traded big with completing two separate transactions that have sure raised our eyebrows at Sports Analytics Inc. 

Courtesy of Espn illustration

It's fair to say that just over a quarter of a way into the NBA season, Orlando succumbed to the reality that in it's current state it could not compete against Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. So they have traded in a big way. 


The First Trade
The first trade, a like for like swap of salaries between:
Rashard Lewis to Washington Wizards for Gilbert Arenas to Orlando Magic. 


What does this do for Orlando
This trade for Orlando might prove to be a good one. Rashard Lewis has been horribly out of form this season actually being a liability on the defense end and shooting a horrific 41.9% from the field down from his 45% for his career.


As for Gilbert Arenas, this brings a 3-time all star to Florida who has been getting back to form after missing 50 games due to suspension last season and only playing 57 games in the previous 3 seasons. What Arenas brings is a pure scoring first passing second point guard that can play the shooting guard spot. And he will have to with both Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon playing the 1 spot. What Arenas must bring to this team is his ability to score when he has the ball and spread the floor so Dwight Howard can play one-on-one in the interior. 


This trade upgrades the Magic's ability to score in different ways apart from the catch and shoot game that Rashard Lewis only has. This does not improve or degrade their existing defense, however Orlando is the 4th best ranked defense in the league allowing only 92.6 points per game so this change will not adversly impact their defense, however Arenas will need to improve his ability to defend the perimeter if he wants to stay Stan Van Gundy's good side. 


What does this do for Washington
This is a reputation redeeming trade for Washington. After Gilbert Arenas' behaviour with gambling and guns in the locker room, the Wizards needed to offload him and let the team flourish under the leadership from No.1 draft pick John Wall. Whilst Wall and Arenas had played some good games together, their ability to co-exist when both play similar positions and both have egos was never going to be a true success. Now Wall can take this team and make it his own. What Lewis brings to this team is a catch and shoot type guy with length, can can help spread the floor more and allow John Wall to get to the basket. When Josh Howard returns it makes for an interesting combination. A lightning quick point guard, a slashing cutter in Howard and a relatively good catch and shooter in Lewis if he can recapture his touch. 


The Second Trade:
The second trade is more of an interesting one where Orlando have made the point to upgrade it's avenues to score after the past 5 games have seen Orlando significantly struggle to put to the ball in the hole.. 


This trade engaged the Phoenix Suns and was a 6 man swap with future draft picks involved:
Vince Carter, Martin Gortart and Mikael Pietrus to Phoenix Suns in exchange for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark. 


What does this do for Orlando:
This trade creates greater flexibility on the offensive end. The return to Orlando for Turkoglu might reinvigorate him to find his career-best form from a couple of seasons ago. It gives the Magic a playing capable of playing the point forward role which if the Magic meet the Heat in the playoffs can tire out a LeBron James on the defensive end through a 7-game series. The same could also be said for a Paul Pierce if the Magic come across Boston in the playoffs. 


The inclusion of Jason Richardson is a huge one. J-Rich can create his own shot, has not significantly slowed as the years have passed and his another shooter to spread the floor. Richardson also has an uncanny knack to have long hot streaks which Stan Van Gundy will love using and at Sports Analytics Inc, we believe he is an upgrade to Vince Carter these days. Combine this with Richardson's league renowned locker room leadership and well-liked personality and this will help mature the team. 


Finally Earl Clark brings another body to the line-up that is young, quick and long which adds more rebounding to a team that is surprisingly ranked 22nd in the league for rebounding despite having the big man Howard in the middle.  However it's fair to say his game time is going to be limited behind a stacked line-up of quality players now that runs deep in Orlando. 


The one downside to this blockbuster trade for Orlando is defense. Whilst many experts will say being the 4th best defensive team in the league you can afford to bring in some more offense. However the problem with this trade is it does not help their perimeter defense, nor their interior defense with the loss of Gortat, and the top two defensive teams in the league are guess who? Miami and Boston. It's fair to say that Van Gundy has his work cut out convincing Arenas, Turkoglu, Richardson and Clark to all buy into a defense first mentality because leaving it all up to Dwight Howard will zap him of his energy to score up the other end. 


What does this do for Phoenix?
The fact that the Suns were forced to give up the popular Richardson for the ability to trade away Turkoglu and his overpaid contract is likely going to rip the Phoenix locker room apart. It was immediately noticeable when Steve Nash cried 'Damn' on his twitter account. The plus for Phoenix is in the Western Conference where many interior monsters exist, Gortat and Pietrus bring much needed size and defensive toughness. Something the Phoenix Suns have not had, well since we can recall (Shaq hardly brought this in his limited time there).


The acquisition of Turkoglu for Phoenix was to replace Amare Stoudermire however this has clearly failed with Phoenix ranking a paltry last in the league in defensive rebounds per game, 25th in rebounds per game in total and dead last in points allowed per game. So clearly Alvin Gentry was intent on bringing some defense back to Arizona. 


The only foreseeable problem for Phoenix now is they have traded their 2nd and 3rd most creative offensive players which will run the risk of them losing their mantle of being the No.1 scoring team in the league at 109.9 points per game, to bring in some handy but by no means amazing defensive players to the team. 


The X Factor here is Vince Carter. Carter can mitigate the loss of offense for the Suns, if he can execute the pick and roll game with Steve Nash. No other Point Guard in the history of the game has executed the Pick and Roll game as good as Nash and with Carter's uncanny ability to get to the hoop and score this duo could actually become more valuable than the Nash and Richardson duo that basketball watchers have observed for the past few years.


Overall Rankings for the 3 teams involved
For Orlando, Sports Analytics INC likes these trades. This gives them more ways to beat teams offensively, and catches them up to Boston and Miami in the race in the Eastern Conference. Orlando gets an 8 out of 10 for making the necessary changes early in the year to build chemistry come playoff time. 


For Washington, this trade gets a bad boy with tainted history off their books, but they've incurred a player that is out of form and not all that much of an upgrade with another $60 million on his contract to be paid. Whilst it now is solely John Wall's team, it is not going to give them any short-term relief anytime soon. 
Washington gets a 5 out of 10.


For Phoenix, this trade does not make them significantly better, but they offload an ugly contract, inherit Vince Carter with only a 1 year guarantee that does not have to be renewed, and get some bigger defensive minded bodies that should help them win those line-ball games that sneak them into the Western Conference Playoffs. 
Phoenix gets a 6.5 out of 10. 


At Sports Analytics INC, we will reexamine the first blockbuster trade of season 2010/11 in February before the All-Star break to determine just how effective these trades were for these teams. We predict this creates a 3-way race for Orlando if they hit chemistry sooner rather than later. 

Chelsea's form crisis

For all the resources at their disposal, Chelsea has accumulated only 6 points from their last 7 games. A form crisis which has seen them plummet from 6 points clear at the summit of the English Premier League to 4^th, 3 points behind current leaders Manchester United who also have a game in hand. To put this form slump into perspective, if the league had started 7 games ago Chelsea would be languishing in 16^th position, with only 1 point keeping them from the relegation zone. At Sports Analytics INC we would like to offer some insight as to why they find themselves in this precarious position.

Injuries

Every team experiences injuries and it’s a Manager’s responsibility to ensure that his roster is deep enough to provide continuity in the instances they occur. However no Manager can provide like-for-like cover for undisputed champions like Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and John Terry who are 3 of the biggest names in their respective positions in world football. The fact that these players represent the spine of the team and have been the biggest contributors of the past 3 to 5 seasons further emphasises this point. Yet with the quality of players still left out on the pitch they should have been able to overcome the majority of teams who took points from them over the past 7 games.

Contribution score 3 out of 10

Management

Everyone is quick to blame bad results on the Manager, after all its one of the ‘perks’ of the job. Many pundits have even gone so far as to suggest that current Chelsea Manager Carlo Ancelotti “has run out of ideas” due to some ‘suspect’ tactical decisions of late. These ‘suspect’ decisions where characterised by his decision to leave Drogba on the bench for the start of the weekends game against Spurs, only for Drogba to almost single handily steal all 3 points after coming on at half time. When you’re managing a team that is used to dealing with master tacticians and regularly winning silverware, how long will it be until the players start to turn on the Manager? Ancellotti’s brain fades can definitely be considered as a contributing factor, however, we still have not reached the crux of the issue.

Contribution score 2 out of 10

Team DNA

The aforementioned factors have definitely contributed to Chelsea’s poor form of late, however we here at Sports Analytics INC feel that the real problem is Chelsea’s very essence its their DNA. The recruitment strategy over the past 5 seasons is the single most important reason they find themselves in the position they are in. They have paid top dollar for aging stars who are reaching the end of their careers and do not have the characteristics to make it in the hustle and bustle of the worlds biggest football league. Remember Andriy Shevchenko? A change of strategy needs to be adopted to ensure that Chelsea remain at the pinnacle of the game for the present not just the future.

Contribution score 5 out of 10.

However as per our mission statement here at Sports Analytics INC we refuse to simply state the obvious that many a switched on fan has already noticed, but rather dig a little deeper and offer a solution to the problem at hand.

Chelsea needs to take a page out of the Arsenal playbook and start playing the talented kids they have in their stables. Envious glances have been cast at their next wave of talent from around Europe, so let’s make this simple. Play the kids! This has many tangible benefits including;

- Less expenditure in transfer fees

- player loyalty

- respect

- and more

In the short term Chelsea possesses almost all the qualities it takes to win that elusive, highly coveted European Champions League Trophy. Well Almost. The one thing Chelsea lack is creativity in the middle of the park. The type of player who can create something from nothing, dictate the play and unlock opposition defences at will. For too long Chelsea has relied on their physicality to create opportunities.

Fortunately there are players available who fit the mould and would integrate seamlessly into Chelsea’s ethos. Here’s a few Sports Analytics INC would like to recommend to the Chelsea recruiting team:

Luka Modric – Luka was a transfer target for Chelsea during the off-season in 2008 after a string of eye catching performances for Croatia against England in Euro 2008 qualification games. Chelsea decided to sit on their hands and review his performance in the tournament before committing to buy. Their delay provided cross-town rival Spurs with an opportunity they couldn’t refuse and snapped him up. He can be characterised as an unselfish attacking all-rounder who at 25 still has significant upside and would integrate well into Chelsea’s squad as a result of his time at Spurs. He wouldn’t come cheaply and would command in the order of $25M +, yet he is a ready made solution to Chelsea’s biggest problem.

Mesut Ozil – Another player that Chelsea thought just a little too long about before pulling the trigger and signing him up. Mesut was handed the playmaking role for Werder Bremen of Germany last season after they sold his Brazillian mentor Diego to Juventus. At 21 he exceeded expectations and went on to star for the German national team in this years World Cup. As a result of his meteoric rise he was snapped up by Real Madrid and is continuing to improve. He definitely has the physical and playmaking qualities Chelsea should be seeking, yet Real will be very reluctant to sell as money is no object at the Estadio Bernabeu.

Many may suggest that the best option for Chelsea to fill the ‘gap’ is to sign Kaka as he has been on the outer following his $57 Million pound transfer from AC Milan. This should be avoided for a number of reasons. Primarily his form and his age. Chelsea are edging closer to the retirement village ever day and need an injection of youth – badly! I’m also reluctant to recommend many of the magicians currently plying their trade in the Spanish league due to the physicality gulf between the 2 leagues. Many have tried to make the leap, (Arteta and Alonso are notable exceptions), and few have succeeded. Last name on the list is…

Yoann Gourcuff – Graceful, elegant, perceptive and Zinedine Zidane’s heir apparent (yes another one) are all terms regularly used to describe Yoann. After making a name for himself playing for Rennes in France, Italian giants AC Milan came knocking in 2006 and he packed up his bags without thinking twice. This didn’t prove to be the most fruitful decision and he struggled to get on the pitch as he was competing for the playmaking role against Kaka at the height of his powers. Realising he needed to play to improve he left Italy and moved back to France with Bordeaux and now Lyon and his career has again been reignited. French players are renowned for their ability to integrate into the Premier League due to similar styles and Yoann would provide the enthusiasm, creativity and intelligence that has been lacking. Not to mention with French stars Nicholas Anelka and Florent Malouda on the Blues team sheet he would have someone to complain about the food with!

One thing is for sure Roman is going to have to open the purse to secure any of these 3 players. Perhaps the pay-off would be worth it with that ‘ole cup with the big ears he wants soo badly sitting on his yacht.

Have the Top Ten Paid Athletes earned their keep in year 2010?

As 2010 comes to a close, Sports Analytics Inc believed it was fitting to determine if the top ten paid sports athletes in the world had earned their keep and look to earn their keep in 2011 from a speculative perspective:

1

Tiger Woods

Golf

Last Year's Rank: 1

Salary / Winnings	$20,508,163
Endorsements	$70,000,000
Total	$90,508,163

Tiger's off-course troubles cost him millions in endorsements -- he was dropped by Gatorade, AT&T and Accenture. But a $10 million FedEx Cup bonus helps keep him at his usual No. 1 perch. The year's top earner was no surprise, being Tiger Woods, however Tiger's performances on the golf course since he sex scandal has impacted him significantly psychologically getting into his head in many rounds inhibiting him from playing four solid rounds of golf for the win. Furthermore Tiger has been in the midst of his 3rd major golf swing of his career which is taking him much longer to grasp and 'bed' down as his standard sublime swing like previous years. At the back end of 2010 Tiger has started to again feature prominently in the top echelon in some tournaments, which might mean his form is returning which means his Salary and Winnings might start to be more than just appearance fees in 2011.

2

Phil Mickelson

Golf

Last Year's Rank: 2

Salary / Winnings	$9,660,757
Endorsements	$52,000,000
Total	$61,660,757

Phil Mickelson returned to the top with his win in the Masters and the promotion of his signature Golf Club lines. Furthermore Tiger’s demise saw the fan base returning and rooting for the big left-hander. This saw his endorsements outweigh his salary and winnings by a whopping 577%. Moving into 2011, Phil needs to remain at the top of his game to compete against a Tiger Woods slowly returning to form.

3

Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Boxing

Last Year's Rank: NR

Salary / Winnings	$60,000,000
Endorsements	$250,000
Total	$60,250,000

Pretty Boy shoots back into the top five after a one-year absence thanks to earnings from bouts with Juan Manuel Marquez and Shane Mosley, the latter of which netted $40 million in purses and pay-per-view sales. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao pending fight will most likely shoot Floyd Mayweather to No.1 if he wins come 2011. Regardless of the outcome with Pacquiao a fight of this proportion might net him more from just one fight next year than he his two bouts this year. At Sports Analytics Inc we are rooting for a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout come March 2011. We are salivating at the mouth just thinking about this.

4

LeBron James

Miami Heat (NBA)

Last Year's Rank: 3

Salary / Winnings	$15,779,912
Endorsements	$30,000,000
Total	$45,779,912

LeBron relinquished a salary of near 25-30 million to sacrifice a bigger bank balance to fight for a championship with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh when me moved to Miami and turned his back on Cleveland. Much to past Hall of Famer’s disgust of banding with stars to win, LeBron has started the first quarter of the NBA season with Miami in below par form but hopefully as 2011 rolls around we will start to see the $25M  LeBron and not the $15M LeBron. However should Miami get close to winning the championship and throughout the season LeBron repairs the perception of traitor, his likely pulling power in endorsements will go through the roof, with signature shoes, clothes, merchandise, and nutritional advocate roles surely to come his way.

5

Alex Rodriguez

New York Yankees (MLB)

Last Year's Rank: 4

Salary / Winnings	$33,000,000
Endorsements	$4,000,000
Total	$37,000,000

A-Rod remained Baseball’s highest paid player, however with many off-field events putting him the tabloids hi endorsements were just a measly 12% of his total salary. As the MLB’s best baseballer and hitter, if A-Rod keeps a squeaky clean image next year, his endorsements will be sure to rise. The key to enhance this man’s pay-packet is to start also promoting himself, whilst not the most personable athlete going around, the public like charisma and need the best players to display charisma. Surely this cannot hurt A-Rod’s pay-packet.

6

Shaquille O'Neal

Boston Celtics (NBA)

Last Year's Rank: 5.

Salary / Winnings	$21,000,000
Endorsements	$15,000,000
Total	$36,000,000

Whilst Shaq is in the twilight years of his career, the big man rakes in the money no matter where he ends up. Despite leaving Cleveland and heading the Boston Celtics, Shaq will still make significant money from his endorsements, though he is likely to slide with him agreeing to take significant less money this season at $1.3M only for him playing in a loaded Celtics roster. This should not matter, as he is easily the all-time NBA leader in total salary: Over an 18-year career, he has earned more than $290 million. No doubt after this season the Big Diesel has a lucrative TV career ahead of him.

7

 

Kobe Bryant

Los Angeles Lakers (NBA)

Last Year's Rank: 7

Salary / Winnings	$23,034,375
Endorsements	$10,000,000
Total	$33,034,375

Kobe now has something else in common with Michael Jordan. His extension has him due to earn $30 million in 2013-14. The only other player ever to earn that much in one season? Jordan. If Kobe wins another championship he becomes equal to Michael Jordan and after him recovering his image from his early days, it’s fair to say if the LA Lakers three-peat this season, Kobe next year will sky-rocket to the top due to endorsements and a whopping salary coming his way from a back-ended contract. With next season and beyond's massive takings, Kobe will surpass his good old mate big Diesel Shaq

8

 

Derek Jeter

New York Yankees (MLB)

Last Year's Rank: 9

Salary / Winnings	$21,000,000
Endorsements	$10,000,000
Total	$31,000,000

The Yankee captain is in the final year of the 10-year, $189 million pact he signed as a 26-year-old. It’s fair to say that Jeter will drop out of the top 10 next year, as his new deal will be for the twilight years of his career, regardless if Steinbrenner and Yankees resign the New York captain.

9

Peyton Manning

Indianapolis Colts (NFL)

Last Year's Rank: 10

Salary / Winnings	$15,800,000
Endorsements	$15,000,000
Total	$30,800,000

The clean-cut straight down the line quarterback is now the most marketable and best sporting role model. With the Indianapolis Colts having another stellar year mainly to the inspired play from Peyton. If Indianapolis take the cream from the NFL this year, Mr. Role Model is likely going to further shoot up the charts next year.

10

Dwyane Wade

Miami Heat (NBA)

Last Year's Rank: 12

Salary / Winnings	$15,779,912
Endorsements	$12,000,000
Total	$27,779,912

Wade became the biggest star in free agency, convincing LeBron James and Chris Bosh to sign with Miami. While Wade took less money to stay in South Beach, however should the Miami Heat win the championship or at the very least go deep, there is a huge opportunity to rake in the endorsements and further climb the charts in 2011. However if things do not work out in Miami and off-court egos and politics come into play, the future endorsement treasure chest might evaporate.