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Monday, March 28, 2011

AFL Round 1 Recap: The good, the bad and the UGLY

The first round of AFL football has come and gone and there were surprises, shocks, and new talking points for the AFL. Sports Analytics INC provides a run down as follows:

The Good:
1. Adelaide Crows: The Crows were supreme in their defeat of Hawthorn. This game was brilliant, with Adelaide starting slow and behind by 6 goals in the first half, only to leverage strong fitness and brilliant ball movement to overrun the Hawks. What's even more impressive is Adelaide lost over 1200 games of experience in retirements last year, primarily from their midfield which did not miss a beat. Patrick Dangerfield is ready for a break-out year

2. Essendon Bombers: The James Hird revolution came to the party for Round 1. Essendon not only defeated a Top Four candidate but a team where most experts have been bullish about being Collingwood's number 1 challenger. The Bombers on Sunday had 71 inside 50's, the most since their 2000 Grand Final demolition of Melbourne. This was complemented by their strong defense, pressure and hound mentality of the Bulldogs ball carriers, which restricted them to 8 goals. With this blend of defence and attack, could the coaching panel have instilled a knowledge on how to play the game?

3. Collingwood...again: The Pies looked in scintillating form. They did what they had to do against Port, being challenged once, yet still won by 75 points. What was more impressive for Collingwood is their midfield brigade rested forward and kicked goals. Dane Swan repaid the faith to his contract renewal by picking up 30 plus possessions and kicking 3 goals resting forward. 

4. Jack Riewoldt: The big full forward on the opening night was brilliant kicking six goals from rubbish forward line delivery and taking strong contested marks and finishing accurately unlike his cousin. This forward is a star of our game, and deserves the accolades as he plays in a mediocre team.

The Bad:
1. St. Kilda: The game plan over summer was preached to be more attacking, provide Riewoldt help up forward, spread the goal kickers, and improve the run and carry. None of this was evident on Friday night. At every win of the ball, St. Kilda held the ball up. They went side-ways and kicked long down the ground to huge packs where Riewoldt was outnumbered and battered. The midfield refused to drop their eyes and kick to open men and run the ball against a slow Geelong outfit. Ross Lyon needs to shake-up this team. The bottom 6 players are not capable of winning a premiership and need to be turned over. Raphael Clarke and Sam Fisher need to play forward if Sam Gilbert is reluctant. Jamie Cripps, Nick Heyne, Jack Steven need to be played just like Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel, Taylor Hunt, Cam Guthrie all delivered value for Geelong. Young players can step into today's game and add value. Ross Lyon take heed and move forward. 

2. Western Bulldogs: A ferocious contested ball winner last year, was humbled on Sunday. This team was out-muscled and did not want to run both ways. This was lazy football from a team that thought it would all happen for them. What makes things worse, is the only player delivering strong value in the first half in new recruit Djerrkura was subbed off in the third term. A little bit baffling.

3. The Sub-Rule: Coaches were extremely timid in using this hoping to hang on to it until an injury occurred. Coaches need to use this tactic for playing a 4th player, not keeping the player in the hope an injury occurs. Strategically coaches should take a look at basketball and use the sub player as an impact player that has all round skills. A goal kicking utility type should always be the sub and they should be used midway through the 2nd or 3rd terms to provide something to the game that is not evident until then.

The Ugly
1. Geelong vs. St.Kilda
In recent memory this game was horrible of many games Sports Analytics has seen, with supporters booing religiously and the atmosphere being dead throughout the MCG. St. Kilda played it's typical game plan and seduced Geelong into doing the same. This led to a dour contest with two teams that have dysfunctional forward lines. Many mistakes and poor decision making would have had Collingwood laughing that these are their closest rivals to the Premiership Cup

2. Jarrad Waite: Waite was cleared of serious concussion damage, but one might have thought he got it before the big bump trying to kick Luke McGuane in the 'aggots' behind play. He should have been rubbed out and should be severely reprimanded. He obviously has the intellect of a pea, the way he plays the game. He is fast becoming a liability in a game where cowardly acts are not required.

3. Jonathan Brown's face: Brown after surgery looks like a car crash victim. The courageousness of Brown can never be understated. Poor Brown will now miss up to 10 weeks and the Lions will sorely miss their captain.

That's all folks, stay tuned for next week.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Why St.Kilda will fall short again

At Sports Analytics Inc we have looked into the contenders and the pretenders for the AFL Premiership 2011 season. Unfortunately for the Saints faithful there will be no heavenly 2011...This is why:


Injection of new talent: Ross Lyon being from the Sydney Swans mould was always forced to rebuild on the fly to prevent bottoming out. Because of such a strong nucleus of star players from 1-8 on the list, there has been a view that topping up players, and not trading for high draft picks means the next crop of players developing through is very thin. If you're looking for improvement with the St. Kilda list, there is no identifiable players between the ages of 18-22 that look like being the Steele Sidebottom or Dayne Beams' that Collingwood have. It's arguable that Jack Steven and David Armitage could provide this injection of new talent, however both these players are lesser prototypes of players like Lenny Hayes, which means they will struggle to get effective game time in the positions they are most suited to, to effect games. In terms of the even younger brigade Jamie Cripps is the only likely type that could step straight into senior football but he is hardly going to influence games. The same can be said for Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy at the key position posts. This means winning games will be left to the same crop of players who have been winning games the past few years.


Lack of pace: Ross Lyon after the grand final rematch said of pre-season the game has changed and St. Kilda need to be more attacking and display more flair. To effectively change this game plan, a football side needs pace and needs quality disposal. Both these traits were seen wanting in the Grand Final rematch which enabled Collingwood's backmen to easily win out against Riewoldt, Kosi and Gilbert. To effectively transform from a disciplined team defence orientation to an attack at all costs can only happen with more than one pre-season and an influx of new talent that have an abundance of pace and sublime skills to hit targets, so the team is not killed on turnovers. 


Off-Field Turmoil: Regardless of how focused and disciplined a team is on the park, off-field distractions and personal hiccups impact performance. St. Kilda has to be commended for how well it has performed during the past two years with all the off-field turmoil it has endured, however the increase in incidents over the Summer has increased the pressure and scrutiny on a team that is so determined to take the next step. Imagine after round 5, St. Kilda are languishing and struggling with form. The knives will come out from the media and pressure will intensify and blame might start to be shifted to the culprits who have not adhered to the St. Kilda system creating in-fighting. 


Transition from Defense and Offense: St. Kilda have been ranked the no.1 team the past 2 seasons for possession held and not turning the ball over. However this strength has contributed to a lack of moving the ball quickly forward to create easier opportunities for forwards and put opposition defense under pressure deep within their forward 50m. St. Kilda when they obtain possession rather than set up a structured foray forward need to be more pragmatic, unpredictable and move the ball forward. They need to run hard forward just like they are programmed to run back to get there defensive structures right. This is not likely to occur easily to a team that has been so drilled to play one way...


In summary, Sports Analytics Inc St.Kilda will likely fall short or even drop off this year due to the above mentioned drawbacks to their game style and play....





Ohio State to win NCAA Tournament

Sports Analytics Inc predicts Ohio State to be cutting the net at the end of the NCAA Tournament...and this is exactly why:



1. Veteran leadership: Good teams lose two ways in the tournament -- they play a bad game or they play a good team that plays great. The Buckeyes may be less prone to a bad game than any team in the tournament -- they're one of two teams in the country (San Diego State) without a loss to an unranked opponent. And, critically, Ohio State has proven this season it can win when not playing its best. That's in large part because seniors David Lighty, Jon Diebler and Dallas Lauderdale don't let them get rattled.
"There's something about experience that keeps you calm under pressure, and I think you saw it in this tournament," said former OSU football star James Laurinaitis, who attended the Big Ten Tournament title game. "When I was a sophomore and we had Troy Smith at quarterback, no matter what situation you got in, you sensed somehow those guys were going to know how to pull it out and get a W."
2. Different styles: Historically, the NCAA Tournament allows the Buckeyes to get out and run free after months of grind-it-out Big Ten play. That's what Ohio State wants to do. While some wondered about Ohio State not being able to speed up Northwestern and Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament, the truth is this: Ohio State can win playing fast or slow.
"We're able to do a lot of different things," point guard Aaron Craft said.
3. The numbers: It's lovely that Dick Vitale picked Ohio State to win it. It's more relevant that some of the top numeric basketball analysts -- Nate Silver writing in the New York Times, Ken Pomeroy writing for Basketball Prospectus and Luke Winn at SI.com -- arrived at Ohio State as the probable champ, the inside numbers on the Buckeyes' offensive and defensive efficiency, free-throw numbers and numerous other factors putting them on top.
They don't just pass the eye test, but the numbers test. Pomeroy's numbers, for instance, gave Ohio State a 21.6 percent chance to win it all, better than Duke at 15.3 percent.
4. No Florida: The debate over which version of the Buckeyes is better -- the 2007 Greg Oden team or the 2011 Jared Sullinger team -- is intriguing. But there's no doubt that this Ohio State team doesn't have to deal with a veteran, defending champ stocked with NBA talent like those Buckeyes did in their title game loss to Florida. Kansas is good, but there's no Florida in this field.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Crystal Ball: AFL Ladder after 4 Rounds 2011

At Sports Analytics, it is time for some crystal balling now that the AFL 2011 Premiership Season is just around the corner. To provide some analytical fun, Sports Analytics Inc has decided to predict the ladder after 4 Rounds based on the fixture and where teams are at relative to their pre-seasons they have had.

Sports Analytics Inc highlights that after 4 rounds there are some surprises but also some expectations. The big 3 in Collingwood, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs will likely be at the top end of the ladder, however a pretty miserable draw for the Tigers will see them languishing at the bottom but with some good upside for improvement from Hardwick's men.

Early surprises will see West Coast not a cellar dweller due to a favourable draw against weaker travelling sides to Subiaco and the Geelong Football Club will be struggling coming to terms with the no Gary Ablett. The biggest surprise will likely come from West Lakes - with Neil Craig's men undefeated and playing strong attacking football both at the ball and at the man.

As follows, Sports Analytics Inc tips the following for the first 4 rounds:


Round 1
Venue
Team
Team
Who Wins
MCG
Carlton
Richmond
Carlton’s midfield is too strong
MCG
Geelong
St. Kilda
St. Kilda easily beat a rebuilding and undermanned Geelong
ES
Collingwood
Port
Collingwood dismantle Port by 10 goals
AS
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Adelaide upset in Round 1 to beat Hawks by 4 goals
G
Brisbane
Fremantle
Brisbane provide another surprise against a Fremantle side that is underdone in their midfield
ES
Essendon
Western Bulldogs
The Bomber’s pre-season form counts for little as the Bulldogs mean business and force many turnovers
MCG
Melbourne
Sydney
Melbourne win a close one in the game of the Round
Subi
West Coast
North Melbourne
West Coast win at home against an injury depleted Kangaroos
BYE
Gold Coast







Round 2
Venue
Team
Team
Who Wins
MCG
St. Kilda
Richmond
St. Kilda’s bigger bodies win out holding to to a below par performance
MCG
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Collingwood win by 10 goals for consecutive weeks
AS
Port
West Coast
Port easily beat West Coast by 6 Goals at home
G
Gold Coast
Carlton
Carlton win 2nd week in a row against debut GC
Subi
Fremantle
Geelong
Fremantle create headaches for Geelong with dash and run
ES
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs humiliate Brisbane by 90+ points
ANZ
Sydney
Essendon
Sydney are overrun by Essendon in the 4th quarter for Hird’s first win
MCG
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Hawthorn push aside Melbourne with Hodge and Franklin hitting form
BYE
Adelaide







Round 3
Venue
Team
Team
Who Wins
MCG
Collingwood
Carlton
Collingwood comfortably beat Carlton by 6 goals in a blockbuster
MCG
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Bulldogs thump a young GC on the road for the first time
AS
Adelaide
Fremantle
Fremantle struggling on the road again and lose to the Crows
MCG
Richmond
Hawthorn
The Tigers push Hawthorn all the way but just fall short
Subi
West Coast
Sydney
West Coast defend their patch much to the surprise of most beating Sydney
MCG
Melbourne
Brisbane
Melbourne win by 5+ goals against the struggling Lions
SS
Geelong
Port
Geelong thump the travelling Port
ES
Essendon
St. Kilda
St. Kilda win their first game against Essendon in 3 seasons to remain undefeated
BYE
North Melbourne







Round 4
Venue
Team
Team
Who Wins
MCG
Richmond
Collingwood
Collingwood win in a closer than thought match
AU
Hawthorn
West Coast
Hawthorn humiliate a tired West Coast by 70+ points
MCG
Carlton
Essendon
Essendon continue to have the wood over Carlton in Home and Away winning by 3 goals
SCG
Sydney
Geelong
This goes down to the wire with Geelong winning by less than a kick
AS
Port
Adelaide
Showdown is fiery with Adelaide taking the chocolates
G
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Melbourne hang on against an improving Gold Coast as Ablett hits form
Subi
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Fremantle thump an injury depleted North
BYE
Brisbane
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs























#
Team
Win
Loss
Draw
Bye
%
1
Collingwood
4
0
0
0
155
2
Western Bulldogs
3
0
0
1
134
3
St. Kilda
3
0
0
1
127
4
Adelaide
3
0
0
1
115
5
Hawthorn
3
1
0
0
109
6
Melbourne
3
1
0
0
119
7
Essendon
2
2
0
0
104
8
Carlton
2
2
0
0
101
9
Fremantle
2
2
0
0
96
10
West Coast
2
2
0
0
91
11
Geelong
2
2
0
0
86
12
Port Adelaide
1
3
0
0
86
13
Brisbane
1
3
0
0
79
14
North Melbourne
0
3
0
1
78
15
Sydney
0
4
0
0
93
16
Gold Coast
0
3
0
1
84
17
Richmond
0
4
0
0
78