Chelsea's form crisis

For all the resources at their disposal, Chelsea has accumulated only 6 points from their last 7 games. A form crisis which has seen them plummet from 6 points clear at the summit of the English Premier League to 4^th, 3 points behind current leaders Manchester United who also have a game in hand. To put this form slump into perspective, if the league had started 7 games ago Chelsea would be languishing in 16^th position, with only 1 point keeping them from the relegation zone. At Sports Analytics INC we would like to offer some insight as to why they find themselves in this precarious position.

Injuries

Every team experiences injuries and it’s a Manager’s responsibility to ensure that his roster is deep enough to provide continuity in the instances they occur. However no Manager can provide like-for-like cover for undisputed champions like Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and John Terry who are 3 of the biggest names in their respective positions in world football. The fact that these players represent the spine of the team and have been the biggest contributors of the past 3 to 5 seasons further emphasises this point. Yet with the quality of players still left out on the pitch they should have been able to overcome the majority of teams who took points from them over the past 7 games.

Contribution score 3 out of 10

Management

Everyone is quick to blame bad results on the Manager, after all its one of the ‘perks’ of the job. Many pundits have even gone so far as to suggest that current Chelsea Manager Carlo Ancelotti “has run out of ideas” due to some ‘suspect’ tactical decisions of late. These ‘suspect’ decisions where characterised by his decision to leave Drogba on the bench for the start of the weekends game against Spurs, only for Drogba to almost single handily steal all 3 points after coming on at half time. When you’re managing a team that is used to dealing with master tacticians and regularly winning silverware, how long will it be until the players start to turn on the Manager? Ancellotti’s brain fades can definitely be considered as a contributing factor, however, we still have not reached the crux of the issue.

Contribution score 2 out of 10

Team DNA

The aforementioned factors have definitely contributed to Chelsea’s poor form of late, however we here at Sports Analytics INC feel that the real problem is Chelsea’s very essence its their DNA. The recruitment strategy over the past 5 seasons is the single most important reason they find themselves in the position they are in. They have paid top dollar for aging stars who are reaching the end of their careers and do not have the characteristics to make it in the hustle and bustle of the worlds biggest football league. Remember Andriy Shevchenko? A change of strategy needs to be adopted to ensure that Chelsea remain at the pinnacle of the game for the present not just the future.

Contribution score 5 out of 10.

However as per our mission statement here at Sports Analytics INC we refuse to simply state the obvious that many a switched on fan has already noticed, but rather dig a little deeper and offer a solution to the problem at hand.

Chelsea needs to take a page out of the Arsenal playbook and start playing the talented kids they have in their stables. Envious glances have been cast at their next wave of talent from around Europe, so let’s make this simple. Play the kids! This has many tangible benefits including;

- Less expenditure in transfer fees

- player loyalty

- respect

- and more

In the short term Chelsea possesses almost all the qualities it takes to win that elusive, highly coveted European Champions League Trophy. Well Almost. The one thing Chelsea lack is creativity in the middle of the park. The type of player who can create something from nothing, dictate the play and unlock opposition defences at will. For too long Chelsea has relied on their physicality to create opportunities.

Fortunately there are players available who fit the mould and would integrate seamlessly into Chelsea’s ethos. Here’s a few Sports Analytics INC would like to recommend to the Chelsea recruiting team:

Luka Modric – Luka was a transfer target for Chelsea during the off-season in 2008 after a string of eye catching performances for Croatia against England in Euro 2008 qualification games. Chelsea decided to sit on their hands and review his performance in the tournament before committing to buy. Their delay provided cross-town rival Spurs with an opportunity they couldn’t refuse and snapped him up. He can be characterised as an unselfish attacking all-rounder who at 25 still has significant upside and would integrate well into Chelsea’s squad as a result of his time at Spurs. He wouldn’t come cheaply and would command in the order of $25M +, yet he is a ready made solution to Chelsea’s biggest problem.

Mesut Ozil – Another player that Chelsea thought just a little too long about before pulling the trigger and signing him up. Mesut was handed the playmaking role for Werder Bremen of Germany last season after they sold his Brazillian mentor Diego to Juventus. At 21 he exceeded expectations and went on to star for the German national team in this years World Cup. As a result of his meteoric rise he was snapped up by Real Madrid and is continuing to improve. He definitely has the physical and playmaking qualities Chelsea should be seeking, yet Real will be very reluctant to sell as money is no object at the Estadio Bernabeu.

Many may suggest that the best option for Chelsea to fill the ‘gap’ is to sign Kaka as he has been on the outer following his $57 Million pound transfer from AC Milan. This should be avoided for a number of reasons. Primarily his form and his age. Chelsea are edging closer to the retirement village ever day and need an injection of youth – badly! I’m also reluctant to recommend many of the magicians currently plying their trade in the Spanish league due to the physicality gulf between the 2 leagues. Many have tried to make the leap, (Arteta and Alonso are notable exceptions), and few have succeeded. Last name on the list is…

Yoann Gourcuff – Graceful, elegant, perceptive and Zinedine Zidane’s heir apparent (yes another one) are all terms regularly used to describe Yoann. After making a name for himself playing for Rennes in France, Italian giants AC Milan came knocking in 2006 and he packed up his bags without thinking twice. This didn’t prove to be the most fruitful decision and he struggled to get on the pitch as he was competing for the playmaking role against Kaka at the height of his powers. Realising he needed to play to improve he left Italy and moved back to France with Bordeaux and now Lyon and his career has again been reignited. French players are renowned for their ability to integrate into the Premier League due to similar styles and Yoann would provide the enthusiasm, creativity and intelligence that has been lacking. Not to mention with French stars Nicholas Anelka and Florent Malouda on the Blues team sheet he would have someone to complain about the food with!

One thing is for sure Roman is going to have to open the purse to secure any of these 3 players. Perhaps the pay-off would be worth it with that ‘ole cup with the big ears he wants soo badly sitting on his yacht.