Who will be the next Manager in the Premier League to be sacked?

The Premier League is not a place for a Manager to seek employment if they are expecting job security. With the obvious exclusions of Arsene Wenger at Arsenal (14 years) and Sir Alex at Manchester United (24 years) the Manager with the closest tenure at the same club is David Moyes at Everton with 8 years of service under his belt. If teams are not performing the way the clubs board and fans expect them to the Manager is invariably the one to fall on his sword or be pushed onto it. There is simply too much at stake to attempt to ride out an extended form slump for teams at either end of the league. To further emphasise this trend 13 of the 20 current Managers employed by teams in the Premier League are either in their first or second seasons at the helm of a club.

With this in mind Sports Analytics INC decided to analyse each Premier Leagues team’s current league position and form and marry them up to the aforementioned board and fans expectations in an attempt to predict the next Manager to be lining up in the unemployment queue.

Let’s do this based each team’s current league position…

1. Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson

The Red Devils are sitting pretty at the top of the league with a game in hand, have the league best goal difference and are the only team not to have tasted defeat this season. They may no longer be playing in the FA or league cups however are comfortably through to the final 16 of the Champions League where they will face French champions Marseille.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Sir Alex will leave Old Trafford when he chooses.

2. Arsenal, Arsene Wenger

For so long the Gunners have promised so much based on potential and talent alone. However this surely has to be the season they break their 5 season drought for silverware and win something to justify Wenger’s youth policy.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Although questions will start to be asked if the drought is not broken soon.

3. Manchester City, Roberto Mancini

Roberto Mancini has done an excellent job of steering the world’s richest team to within touching distance of the Premier League’s summit. Managing all those egos cannot have been easy, especially considering the surplus of international players City currently has in the stables that are not getting the regular starting roles they feel they deserve. A job that is only going to get more difficult with a number of other big names linked with January switches to the City of Manchester Stadium.

Likelihood to be sacked – Highly Unlikely, however nothing would surprise us

here at Sports Analytics INC when we are discussing Manchester City.

4. Chelsea, Carlo Ancelotti

The defending champions are currently experiencing their worst form slump since 1998. The only reason the find themselves in 4^th position is due to their sparkling start to the season. The fans at Stamford Bridge have become accustomed to winning in recent times and the board has a nasty habit of firing Managers when they don’t live up to these expectations.

Likelihood to be sacked – Decent chance. Unless the form slide can be addressed NOW then Ancelotti will become the next big name to have failed at Stamford Bridge.

5. Tottenham, Harry Redknapp

The Spurs are enjoying quite possibly their best ever season in the Premier League. Currently 5 points from the top of the league, still alive in the FA Cup and qualifying top of a Champions League group with World Champions Inter Milan as sparring partners is no mean feat. Not to mention the emergence of Gareth Bale as a genuine star and the astute purchase of the mercurial Rafael Van der Vaart.

Likelihood to be sacked – No Chance. ‘Arry isn’t going anywhere.

6. Bolton, Owen Coyle

The Wanderers have excelled this season adding a high tempo attacking style of play to their renowned physicality. Bolton have the equally third highest goal tally this season to date with Swedish international Johan Elmander particularly excellent. The fact Chelsea have been sniffing around defensive wall Gary Cahill is no coincidence, he has been pivotal in rebounding defence into attack.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Coyle has transformed one Bolton into watchable in a very short period of time and with limited resources.

7. Sunderland, Steve Bruce

Of particular interest Bruce’s success at Sunderland will be to Newcastle considering he is a Geordie legend and the intense cross-town rivalry they enjoy. Admittedly, Bruce has had resources at his disposal and made more astute purchases than not, with Asamoah Gyan a revelation. The 3 – 0 win at Stamford Bridge has been the highlight of a decent season to date.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Even if Newcastle decided to get down on one knee and pop the question, it’s highly unlikely he would accept. Especially considering the resources and ongoing support he has had from the Sunderland boardroom, something he would not be granted at Newcastle.

8. Blackpool, Ian Holloway

Blackpool would top everyone’s list as the surprise of season 2010-11. Holloway has transformed what was essentially a team that limped into the Championship play-offs last season, by adopting a playing style that complimented his cattle and instilling a never-say-die attitude. I’m sure players will reconsider Ian’s advances when he next comes knocking.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Ian is much loved by the city of Blackpool and has created a real buzz.

9. Blackburn, Steve Kean

Rovers are deceptively high in the table, currently 3 points from 14^th having played a game extra then most of the teams below them. Positive thinking is what landed virgin first team Manager Steve Kean the job, taking over from big Sam Allardyce in the last few weeks. This makes it tough to gauge how long he will be given before he suffers the same fate as a chicken at the owners poultry firm Venky’s.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Unless Rovers are relegated Kean should ride out the season.

10. Stoke City, Tony Pullis

Stoke have literally wrestled the, “most physical team” in the league title from Bolton. Pullis has constructed a team capable of locking down all but the most capable Premier League attack, with a brand of hurly burly set piece football, and whilst not aesthetically pleasing it does generate results.

Likelihood to be sacked – No chance. Pullis has made the most of what he has and isn’t going anywhere.

11. Everton, David Moyes

Everton have not performed as expected this season to date. Many had them tipped to shed their bridesmaids dress and finally solidify themselves in the top 6. If it hadn’t been for the excellent Tim Cahill who has scored 3 times as many goals as Everton’s strikers have generated combined, then there may have been a lot more pressure on Moyes’ shoulders.

Likelihood to be sacked – Unlikely. However, with Tim Cahill’s planned rendezvous with the Australian team in the Asian Cup in the new year, unless others start earning their keep questions may soon be asked.

12. Liverpool, Roy Hodgson

Where did it all go wrong at Anfield? The Kop have fond recent memories of pushing Manchester United and Chelsea all the way in the league and many extended cup runs. However the last 2 seasons have not unfolded as expected. In Roy’s defence he has inherited a team that he didn’t construct and who haven’t subscribed to his style of football.

Likelihood to be sacked – Just around the corner. Many are already calling for Hodgson’s head as Liverpool are currently in uncharted waters in the bottom half of the table.

13. Newcastle, Allan Pardew

Newcastle is about where everyone expected them to be this season. Mid table. With wins against both Liverpool and Arsenal to date and the emergence of as genuine number 9 for England in their ranks, Chris Haughton can rightfully feel confused as to why he is no longer patrolling the by-line at St. James’ Park. His successor, Allan Pardew should take note of the current owner’s propensity to change managers like his y-fronts.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. With 8 managerial changes in the past 4 years who would bet against Ashley changing his mind again?

14. West Bromwich Albion, Roberto Di Matteo

The perennial yo-yo team of the past decade, West Brom play an attractive passing game under Di Matteo that is beginning to deliver results. The Baggies have taken points away from home at both the Emirates and Old Trafford suggesting this season they may avoid another relegation scrap.

Likelihood to be sacked – Not Likely. Di Matteo is doing an excellent job at Albion with things looking bright for the future.

15. Aston Villa, Gerard Houllier

When Houllier took over from Martin O’Neill 10 minutes before the season started I’m sure he expected more from the team who finished 6^th last season then what he has received. Villa’s form this season has surprised all. Had it not been for the emergence of a Villa winger Marc Albrighton and the sustained good form of Stuart Downing Villa could be scrapping it out in the relegation zone.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Villa have the worst away record in the league and whilst Randy Lerner appreciates the need for continuity in management sooner or later he will remember the same team, minus James Milner, finished 6^th last season.

16. Wigan, Roberto Martinez

Having scored less goals then anyone else in the Premier League this season, Wigan’s top flight status in the foreseeable future is looking decidedly bleak. Simply put, Wigan try to play an up tempo attacking style without the personnel to get it done.

Likelihood to be sacked – Doubtful. Whilst Wigan are on the cusp of the relegation places, this is where they are expected to be.

17. Birmingham, Alex McLeish

Don’t let the Blues current League position fool you. They have been excellent this year taking not losing to any of the leagues big teams. They have 2 games in hand on the majority of the teams in their vicinity and have been good value in the majority of their fixtures. To take the next step they need some more firepower up front and to extend their superb home form onto the road.

Likelihood to be sacked – Not Likely. Stranger things have happened in football, though Sports Analytics INC do not think it will happen anytime soon.

18. Fulham, Mark Hughes

Under Roy Hodgson Fulham made steady progress up the league table and went on a giant killing run to the final of the UEFA Cup, and whilst they lost that game, seemingly good times where on the horizon. However, Liverpool came knocking after kicking their Benitez addition and Hodgson couldn’t say no to Red’s. Mark Hughes was quickly ushered in as his replacement and things just haven’t gone to plan.

Likelihood to be sacked – 50/50. Hughes simply hasn’t performed with the same playing staff as those Hodgson used to great effect during his tenure. The only real answer is management.

19. Wolverhampton, Mick McCarthy

Wolves are suffering from a serve bout of second season syndrome, a condition experienced by many teams who gain promotion from the Championship. McCarthy is a proud, passionate man who is trying to will mor e consistency out of his charges. However, he rarely has a plan B is plan A isn’t working.

Likelihood to be sacked – Unlikely. We wouldn’t be surprised either way.

20. West Ham, Avram Grant

Not even Robbie Keane’s likely loan arrival will inject the much needed life required to stay up this season. Grant has a list that would make many Premier League managers green with envy and yet cannot create a cohesive unit that generates the results required.

Likelihood to be sacked – Sooner then later. Porn magnate David Gold’s patience is wearing thing and we expect his head will be rolling very shortly.

Summation

At Sports Analytics INC we have our money on either Avram Grant or Roy Hodgson being the next Manager to be shown the door. Roman Ambramovich spent far too much time wooing Carlo Ancelotti and has spent piles of money paying out severed manager’s contracts to prematurely end Carlo’s stay at Chelsea. As for the other 2 expect heads to roll in January.

Happy New Years from all of us at Sports Analytics INC.