Can Danny Green defend his title against the next big thing BJ Flores? Sports Analytics predicts NO.

Source: http://www.totalsportsmadness.com/

Tonight in Perth, Australia, Danny Green defends his cruiserweight title tonight against BJ Flores. Danny Green has brought out BJ Flores in a gesture to the fans after his last couple of fights have bordered on farcical that lasted less than 1 round. Tonight’s task is of much tougher magnitude. Green is fighting a younger, bigger, tougher and highly skilled boxer who has a 24-0-1 record, albeit against lesser calibre boxers. Nonetheless, the task tonight is daunting for Danny Green.

At Sports Analytics INC we look at both men’s styles, records and preparation for the fight to dissect who will win. Firstly, Danny Green’s camp has highlighted they are well prepared. Green’s camp believe they have perfected a punch that could bring to an early end to tonight's title fight against American BJ Flores in Perth. Green’s trainer, Angelo Hyder has identified the specific shot in Green's artillery that can bring to a swift and successful end his fourth title defence.

Green’s Style and Preparation

Danny Green has always been a ‘come-forward’ type of boxer and always tries to jam his opponent up. The type of boxer this style failed with was a lightning quick Mundine and it’s yet to be really tested against a much bigger opponent. If Green can lock Flores and not give him room to swing his big hitting punches, then Green will be served well.

It has also been reported Green has been working on a body blow shot that is believed by the Green camp as a lethal shot. "He'll cut him in half - there and then. Don't be surprised if it stops him," Green’s trainer Hyder said of a so-far under-used body shot that Green was delivering with remarkable ferocity in a pad session this week. "He doesn't want to get hit clean by Danny Green … it doesn't matter whether it's to the head or the body - he's going to be in trouble."

In Danny Green’s favour is his speed and one-two combinations that hurt even the very best fighters. This could stand in Danny Green’s favour, however Green has had to bulk up and make the 88.6kg weight. Green by his own admission has had to eat ‘significant’ amounts and guzzle litres of water to make the weight. This could be problematic for Green who might lose some agility to avoid the heavy hits that will no doubt come from Flores. On the other side, former heavyweight Flores is the lightest he has ever been for a fight and he weighed in less that Danny Green at 88.5kg.

Flores’ Style and Preparation

Flores, has looked to be in terrific condition and claimed never to have felt better before a fight, said: "I'm going to prove to everybody that I'm one of the top fighters in this division … it's going to be a great fight."

From a tactical strategy perspective, Danny Green has highlighted that he is going to rely on speed and power shots to beat Flores, however the fact that Green has had to gain weight may detract from his speed advantage over Flores.

For Flores, the key to him winning the fight is conditioning. He is a different styled boxer to who Danny Green has normally fought with often Green being the bigger opponent. The 31-year-old Flores, believes his opponent is yet to fight a boxer of his style. “I’m not of the same type of opponent he’s used to having or used to fighting,” Flores said. Flores has a tremendour jab for a big guy which might be able to hold Green from moving forward to get inside. This needs to be his calling card and then set him up for the jab cross hook combination.

Promotional issues meant that Flores has not fought since August last year. As soon as he was released from that contract, just four days later he signed to fight with Green. This could be detrimental to Flores as there is nothing like actually standing toe to toe with an opponent in the real dance. This means that Flores should not try and knock Green out and expend heaps of energy in the early rounds if it’s going to go the full 12 rounds. Every time Green moves forward, Flores must use the jab and his reach size to advantage and then counter by moving forward. Flores will need to draw on his experienced fighting career despite being Green’s junior by 6 years. The former Golden Gloves champion’s amatuer record is just as impressive winning 110 of his 119 fights before turning pro in 2003. Flores will need to have a couple of different plans, especially if he gets hit early a few times.

Whilst he is cool, calm and collected, the San Francisco native also respects the defending champion labelling him his toughest opponent to date.

“I feel like he’s the best opponent I’ve been into the ring with,” he said.  “It’s going to be the most difficult fight of my career but I’m ready for that I’m ready to have my coming out party on Wednesday night.”

At Sports Analytics INC, we believe Flores is extremely prepared for this fight and not taken it lightly. He is now in peak form; running mountains, sparring, lifting weights and working on his timing, and working with 6 different sparring partners that all have similar traits to Danny Green. BJ Flores has a phenemonal jab for a big man and with a reach of 203cm inches and standing 6ft 3” comparative to Danny Green’s reach of 185cm and 6ft height. This needs to be the foundation for his strategy. Every time Green moves forward, Flores must look to hit him on his attack.

How they match up?

Danny Green

Born: Perth, Western Australia
Age: 37
Height: 185cm
Reach: 185cm 
Stance: Orthodox
Record: Won 30 (27 KO), Lost 3, Drawn 0
Current belts: IBO cruiserweight
Turned pro: 2001

BJ Flores
Born: California, United States
Age: 31
Height: 188cm
Reach: 203cm
Stance: Orthodox
Record: Won 24 (15 KO), Lost 0, Drawn 1

Flores’ last fight was in August 2009 which was a fourth round stoppage win over the smaller Epifanio Mendoza and in fights before this he has beaten the reasonable but not exceptional Jose Luis Herrera and Darnell Wilson.

So Flores is unknown at this level. Green is not. Before retirement, Green could fight at a high pace and keep it going. Since his comeback, he has not had to go past the fifth round and has not fought anyone in their boxing prime with Jones Jr, Briggs and Siaca all being in the twilight years of their careers, and although there is no doubt that Green will have pushed his body to the limits in training, we have no way of knowing if his 37 year old body will start to struggle if the fight gets past the middle rounds.

So who takes it? Well anything could happen in this one. If Green starts so fast, there is a real chance that he could blow away a rusty Flores very early in the fight but there is also a good chance that Flores can use his weight advantages to outbox a tiring Green down the stretch. At Sports Analytics INC, we believe it’s BJ Flores time to give Danny Green some serious retirement consideration.


Update: Last night witnessed Danny Green able to stick to a game plan and not give Flores the room which ultimately led to Flores getting hit every time he encroached forward. Flores learnt a big lesson and it certainly looks like BJ Flores was overrated at Sports Analytics INC. As for Danny Green he showed nous and smarts to combat his age and showed he went into the fight more than prepared.


Sports Analytics INC - congratulates Danny Green on his successful title defense