Is the Title Miami Heat’s? No, not on first glance.

The NBA season is about 5-7 games in for most teams and after the first week there have been some big questions posed, and some big answers in the first week of play. The hype going into this NBA season has been unprecedented with the off-season player moves and transactions. Teams who were once a championship fighter are now fighting against the decline, new teams with young talent are starting to flourish and then there are the mainstays like the LA Lakers, Orlando Magic, and Boston Celtics all remaining near or at the top. The biggest question, though, to come out of the first week of basketball is – How good are the Miami Heat? And more importantly how good are they going to be come April 2011?

After watching in depth the Miami Heat wins and losses in the first week, I must be provocative and highlight I have bigger doubt after 7 games than I had before game 1 of season 2010-11. So let’s answer two key questions around Miami Heat?

Why CAN the Miami Heat win the Championship?

Talent

The Miami Heat can win the championship based on talent alone. They have arguably two if not three future hall of famers in LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh (should Mr. Bosh elevate his game a couple of levels). These three guys can scrimmage with anyone and create their own shot. They are ‘get to the basket’ type guys, who end up at the foul line. In the 7 games just passed Miami are scoring 40% of their points from either the free-throw line or on the fast break from other teams’ turnovers. That’s what LeBron and Wade in a backcourt will do for any team.

Defense

The Heat in the first 7 games have a defensive efficiency of 87.9 and allowing opposition points per game of 84. Their coach Erik Spoelstra focused their off-season on defensive chemistry as this is where he believes championship are lost and won. We only have to look back at the Celtics, Pistons to identify with this hypothesis.

Depth in Role Players

When Pat Riley was assembling the roster in the off-season he lured the two big fish to Florida in James and Bosh. However the job Riley additionally did in luring role players to buy in to the ‘this is a championship calibre team with you playing your role’ concept has been effective. Role players such as Mike Miller (when healthy), Eddie House, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and big Zyndrunas Ilgauskas highlights there are enough threats on the court to spread the defense and allow the big 3 to score. If injuries stay away and these role players are allowed continuity, then this highlights a strong team that will feature prominently come playoff time. A famous coach once said to me: ‘A champion team is better than a team of champions’. This needs to be the catch-cry for Miami Heat all season.

Why CAN’T the Miami Heat win the Championship?

Their System

In watching Miami play the past 7 games, their 5 wins have come against only 1 contender in Orlando. I’ll admit they absolutely destroyed the Magic, but the Magic are a jump shooting team. When their shot from the arc is off, it falls into the hands of any run and gun team and is a recipe for disaster against the Heat. More specifically watching the Heat play against Boston and New Orleans, and it showed their system can be broken down. New Orleans and Boston this season have been the defensive heavyweights thus far with their rotating defense, their ability to hussle, force turnovers and defensively rebound the ball limit the Miami Heat’s ‘create your own shot first, then pass second’ system they are playing at the moment. This type of defense has forced LeBron to average more turnovers a season than 4.71 per game. One can argue as the season progresses their system will become stronger. But the longer the team is exposed on prime time live games, every other team is going to be watching for how it can break their system down.

Their Interior

To win championships you need quality big men. The moment the big 3 assembled in Miami, I was keen to see what big men they could acquire to do the dirty work down on the block and could they get a big man that could pass. This is where I think the lack of a quality 7 footer is going to hurt down the stretch. Unless Miami can pull off a quality big man in a trade then I think this is where they will struggle against teams. Chris Bosh is not and never will be a bump and grind big man. He is a finesse player. He is a Dirk Nowitzki like player. A front to the basket type guy. Udonis Haslem is severely undersized and Ilgauskaus and Joel Anthony lack the quality of a Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard come playoff time. Without such a big block shotting presence, the defensive unit needs to protect the paint which means shooters against the Heat get good looks at the basket. Trevor Ariza was witness to this on Friday, draining 3 pointers in crunch time against the Heat.

Who is the go to guy?

My final question mark over the Heat is who will be the go to guy that players look to sub-consciously. With a team stacked with 3 quality superstars, confusion can mount as to who gets that clutch shot or who handles the ball in the final play? With LeBron reluctantly wanting to handle the point position, does this create players to second guess their instincts and result in missed plays down the stretch? We all saw when Malone, Payton, Bryant and Shaq all loaded up the Laker team many years ago, the amount of confusion that occurred as to who was the go to guy for various plays led to their ultimate demise.

Source: http://www.nba.com/heat/photogallery/welcome_to_miami_1.html, credit: David Alvarez

Whilst these are my preliminary assessments on the Miami Heat after 7 games, I must highlight there is significant up-side to a team so very fresh and over the duration of the season, there is no doubt this team will improve dramatically out of sight. I would recommend Eric Spoelstra looking at a triangle-like offense to bring some structure and system to the half court game for their three superstars to help facilitate plays for each of the stars rather than them forcing the ball and trying to create their shots of the dribble.

So if Miami can’t win the title, then who will and where are each team placed right now in their quest to hoist the trophy high come June? At Sports Analytics, we have developed a system for ranking teams using a number of data points that total up to ranking points for weekly rankings. These weekly rankings look at the following stats:

Stat	Why measure this statistic?	Weighting Factor
Points per game by team:	How offensively potent are the team	(Pts for – Pts Against) * 10
Opposition points per game	Are they defending well in the hot spot?
Field Goal percentage	Are they making the most of their opportunities?	(FG % - FGA %) *10
Opposition Field Goal percentage	Are they defending well and preventing second chance points?
Points Differential:	Offense compared to defense?	(Pts for – Pts Against) * 10
# of players per team average above 17.5 points per game:	Do they have prime scorers?	Count # * 10
# of players per team average between 7.5 to 17.5 points per game:	Do they have role players that can score?	Count # * 10
# of players rebounding more than 8.5 rebounds per game:	Are they well served on the glass?	Count # * 15
# of rotation players playing above 22.5 minutes a game:	How big is the team’s dependency?	Count # * 5
# of rotation players playing above 8.5 minutes a game and less than 22.5 minutes a game	How deep are this team?	Count # * 5
Team assists per game:	Do they distribute the ball well?	# * 10
Turnovers committed vs. turnovers forced:	Do they not throw the ball away?	( TO comm. – TO forced )*10
Offensive efficiency vs. Defensive efficiency:	How do they stack up at both ends?	(OE – DE)*2
Current Win-Loss ration:	How are they tracking with Wins?	10 pts per win

Table 1: Weekly Ranking Indicators (stats driven by ESPN.com)

These weekly rankings are then expanded by looking at the historical calibre of each teams roster such as, all NBA team representation, all NBA second and third teams, championships won, average age and a logical overrule.

Stat	Why measure this statistic?	Weighting Factor
# of All-Star Players	How many stars does the roster have?	# * 10
# of All NBA First Team Players	How many superstars past or present does the team have?	# * 10
# of All NBA Second Team Players	How many consistent stars does the roster have?	# * 7.5
# of All NBA Third Team Players	How many relatively consistent stars does the roster have?	# * 5
# of Championship Players	How many players know what it’s like to win a championship?	# * 15
Average Age of Team	How old are the team?	Ranking age into +/- points
Logic Overrule	Despite all these stats, what does my head, heart and stomach tell me about each team and their likely finish?	A plus or minus of points on gut feel

Table 2: Seasonal Projections (stats driven by ESPN.com)

The total points then add up using a weighting system as per the tables above and an overrule logic factor is applied to each team. As statistics are not the be all and end all, and some human interaction in rankings needs to take account. For example Oklahoma Thunder, were ranked 25^th purely based on statistical performance a week into the season, combined with the fact they’re a young team without significant historical accolades one could argue their ranking is justified. However the logic in me believes this team is a much higher ranked opposition and had they had a better start to the season rather than a couple of shaky losses, their ranking would be much higher. I believe their slow start and unfavourable stats will be turned around sooner rather than later.

As a result my weekly rankings are as follows:

  

Team	Total Performance Rating	Weekly Ranking
LA Lakers	549.920	1
Miami	513.280	2
Orlando	473.520	3
Dallas	461.690	4
Boston	454.990	5
New Orleans	443.020	6
Atlanta	440.040	7
Portland	399.320	8
San Antonio	392.550	9
Golden State	370.630	10
Chicago	357.400	11
Utah	355.220	12
Denver	343.860	13
New Jersey	295.880	14
Philadelphia	267.870	15
New York	258.610	16
Toronto	241.170	17
Phoenix	229.870	18
Sacramento	223.620	19
Indiana	216.590	20
Charlotte	203.060	21
Houston	196.090	22
Memphis	182.570	23
Milwaukee	178.230	24
Oklahoma City	154.660	25
LA Clippers	152.730	26
Cleveland	148.600	27
Washington	104.200	28
Detroit	104.190	29
Minnesota	43.910	30

Table 3: Weekly Rankings

These weekly rankings are purely statistically based as per the variables highlighted below. As per expectation the heavy players round out the top 3 in LA, Miami and Orlando. Dallas is surprisingly high due to their defensive efficiency to start the season, despite dropping two games they should have won. Of the remaining undefeated teams Atlanta and New Orleans and the top 7 teams have strong cases for why they fill the top 7 spots.

Looking towards the season projections and a fair bit of movement occurs primarily due to teams having deep rosters with championship, all-star and all-NBA calibre talent. What this highlights is the Lakers and the Heat are projected to playoff in a Finals series that pits system and cohesion against raw stars. Right behind these two teams, will be the defence oriented Celtics with their deep experience to carry them through the season and a gigantic frontline of role players and the team of shooters plus the beast in the Orlando will be vying to take the Lakers’ crown.

  

Team	Projections points for year	Logic Overule	Final Standings
LA Lakers	801.920	821.920	1
Miami	649.020	779.020	2
Boston	804.280	754.280	3
Orlando	542.690	692.690	4
Oklahoma City	397.400	647.400	5
Denver	588.020	613.020	6
Portland	430.050	610.050	7
San Antonio	649.490	609.490	8
Dallas	590.040	600.040	9
New Orleans	455.630	565.630	10
Atlanta	530.320	560.320	11
Phoenix	397.860	487.860	12
Utah	435.720	485.720	13
Golden State	268.870	408.870	14
Chicago	334.880	364.880	15
LA Clippers	261.620	311.620	16
Houston	256.370	311.370	17
Milwaukee	199.060	309.060	18
Indiana	244.590	264.590	19
New York	284.670	259.670	20
Memphis	194.570	244.570	21
Detroit	378.110	228.110	22
Philadelphia	227.590	207.590	23
New Jersey	190.230	205.230	24
Charlotte	188.660	198.660	25
Cleveland	116.200	166.200	26
Sacramento	140.600	160.600	27
Toronto	142.730	142.730	28
Washington	97.190	127.190	29
Minnesota	39.910	64.910	30

Table 4: Season Projections

So to answer many questions that are circulating the basketball world today, I believe the Championship race is still wide open. The Lakers are my pick to three-peat with the cohesion question of Miami still likely to prevent them securing the crown. If Orlando can look at ways to beat teams other than from the jump shot or pound insight to Dwight Howard they are a huge show due to their depth. If the Celtics can remain healthy and get Shaq back on court firing and passing out of the double team, then the crown could still be theirs.

The one definite thing I know, is this season shapes as one of the most interesting seasons the NBA has faced in a long time. The questions I have floating around my head are as follows:

• Does experience, cohesion and a strong triangle system beat all comers?
• Can 3 superstars win a title without a defensive shot-blocking center?
• Can a veteran filled team stay healthy enough to contest in June?
• Can any of the younger teams go deep into the post-season?
• Which stars will carry their teams beyond expert analysts predictions?

The answers should become clearer once we’re 3 months into the long marathon season.