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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

NBA Weekly Rankings and Seasonal Projections

It’s that time folks when we look into the statistics driving the performance of the NBA for this week. The past week witnessed all teams now tasting defeat, and further surprises with the strong play by teams such as San Antonio with the new found energy from Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and surprisingly Richard Jefferson stroking his shot better than ever.

Chicago have won 4 games on the trot and getting inspirational play from hot point guard Derrick Rose, as witnessed by his monster fourth quarter of 17 points against the Houston Rockets in the Bulls’ come from behind win.

Finally, defense has become the foundation for why the Dallas Mavericks handed New Orleans their first season loss. The combination of Tyson Chandler, Brendan Haywood in the paint is really helping their rebounding and altering teams shots. Dallas have 3 players averaging over 6 rebounds per game and are shooting at a league high of 48.7 field goal percentage. Maybe Rick Carlisle is finally getting through to a group littered with talent.

The major disappointments thus far have been Oklahoma City who are struggling to beat teams they should beat on paper due to their field goal percentage a staggering 39.3% thus far this season. Kevin Durant has not got his shot going this season and when the Thunder do not have great offensive rebounders, 2nd chance points are hard to come by.

New York continue to disappoint and under Mike D’Antoni’s system of relying on pushing the ball, running and gunning and living and dying by the 3 point shot, I suspect another painful year is in store for the biggest basketball market in the US.

The last big disappointment for Sports Analytics INC is the LA Clippers. The rapid improvement was always going to be a big question but with Blake Griffin playing great basketball and the biggest new big man playing the number 4 position since Tim Duncan, combining with Chris Kaman off a career year and young blood in Eric Gordon and a veteran in Baron Davis, we at Sports Analytics INC believed their would be solid improvement. To date we’ve just not seen it with their second unit just being slaughtered in games.

Finally, a massive commendation goes to Jerry Sloan and his Jazz after their consistent come from behind wins on the feared Florida road-trip. Beating the Heat, Magic, Atlanta and Charlotte highlights that they have big heart and a system if stuck to can get them back from the brink.

This leads Sports Analytics INC to list the weekly rankings followed by the seasonal projections for what might turn out to be the most exciting NBA season we’ve had in sometime. To recap on our ratings system, this is how we tally up the rankings points at Sports Analytics INC;


Stat
Why measure this statistic?
Weighting Factor
Points per game by team:
How offensively potent are the team

(Pts for – Pts Against) * 10
Opposition points per game
Are they defending well in the hot spot?

Field Goal percentage
Are they making the most of their opportunities?

(FG % - FGA %) *10
Opposition Field Goal percentage
Are they defending well and preventing second chance points?

Points Differential:
Offense compared to defense?

(Pts for – Pts Against) * 10
# of players per team average above 17.5 points per game:
Do they have prime scorers?

Count # * 10
# of players per team average between 7.5 to 17.5 points per game:
Do they have role players that can score?

Count # * 10
# of players rebounding more than 8.5 rebounds per game:
Are they well served on the glass?

Count # * 15
# of rotation players playing above 22.5 minutes a game:
How big is the team’s dependency?

Count # * 5
# of rotation players playing above 8.5 minutes a game and less than 22.5 minutes a game
How deep are this team?
Count # * 5
Team assists per game:
Do they distribute the ball well?

# * 10
Turnovers committed vs. turnovers forced:
Do they not throw the ball away?

( TO comm. – TO forced )*10
Offensive efficiency vs. Defensive efficiency:
How do they stack up at both ends?

(OE – DE)*2
Current Win-Loss ration:
How are they tracking with Wins?

10 pts per win


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
1
LAL
113.8
101
2
5
2
5
1
9-2
580.120
Two shaky losses was not enough to dethrone the Lakers and their high-functioning triangle right now. Could Pau Gasol be the best big man to feature in the triangle offense. Once Phil Jackson solves their defense problem the sky’s the limit

Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
2
ORL
103.3
88
1
5
1
5
0
7-3
513.720
The magic have dropped a couple of games they should not have lost, but when they win and are firing they look very dangerous. D. Howard’s range game is scary, let’s just work on his foul shooting and this guy could be anything

  
Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
3
DAL
98
90
2
2
3
6
2
7-2
505.890
Defense and rebounding are the big factors to success for the Mavericks. Chandler in the middle has been immense. 3 guys averaging over 6 rebounds per game and best FG % means their system is working. Could it be the boring parts of basketball that propel the Mavs far.


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
4
NOR
100.5
94
1
7
2
5
1
8-1
500.420
Defense is winning them games, and Chris Paul’s ability to control the tempo of the game and work the pick and roll with multiple players is causing teams headaches.
                                       

Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
5
MIA
100.6
84
2
4
2
7
1
6-4
485.880
Struggling more than we all expected, but when they click they still look dangerous. Need to find an offensive system than just penetrate, pass and shoot. Turnover ratio is still in the negative vs. turnovers forced


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
6
SAS
105.3
102
3
1
3
6
2
8-1
484.750
Massive surprise packet winning 7 straight. Richard Jefferson has finally turned his career around and the Parker, Ginobli combination is strong. Even with a declining Duncan. Popovich could be a smoky coach of the year. Only con is they’ve not played many powerhouse teams yet.



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
7
BOS
98.8
93
2
3
1
5
1
8-2
483.790
Still the team to beat in the East in Sports Analytics opinion, however some age worries appeared this week with both O’Neal’s not getting on the court much, leaving it to too few



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
8
ATL
103.2
101
1
7
2
5
1
8-4
430.040
Tremendous start has been brought back to reality, however Al Horford is helping their interior survive. They need to work on their second unit or they will continue to plummet down the rankings



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
9
CHI
102
98
2
3
2
5
1
6-3
413.000
Big jumper this week, with Derrick Rose playing out of his skin and different support cast contributing different nights.

  

Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
10
UTH
106.8
107
2
4
2
5
1
7-4
373.020
Until the loss to the Thunder, this team was showing the biggest heart. D-Will is back in top form


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
11
POR
98.4
92
1
6
2
6
1
7-5
368.920
Hanging in there with Roy’s injury. Deep roster is keeping them afloat. Can it last? Hurts even more with Oden out another year


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
12
GSW
109.8
109
1
4
1
5
2
7-4
323.230
Scorching offense is helping them stay above .500. Getting Lee back healthy ASAP is crucial


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
13
DEN
103.3
96
1
3
2
6
0
6-5
309.260
Not sure what to make of Denver. One night they are good, the next they are not. Is the Carmelo talk a distraction to performance?


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
14
NJN
92
96
2
3
2
5
2
4-6
265.080
Many will ask how are they so high. They have many pieces playing above themselves right now. That’s why

Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
15
PHO
104.5
107
2
5
0
7
1
6-4
254.870
No rebounders with Lopez out and interior defense that is not cutting it. Need answers quickly.



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
16
IND
96.8
103
1
6
2
5
0
4-5
191.190
Shooting the lights out. A young team that needs to use Hibbert more inside to free up their shooters more.

  

Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
17
MIL
90.4
95
0
3
3
4
1
5-6
168.830
Disappointing at the moment. Sports Analytics had them as a big mover this season. Need to play the inside out game



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
18
CHA
90
97
2
2
2
4
1
4-7
166.660
Bobcats are struggling with their ability to put the ball in the hole and controlling the ball



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
19
OKC
100.5
107
2
1
0
5
1
6-4
153.060
The big disappointment – Lack of rebounders, and poor shooting is costing the Thunder from elevating their game to the next level from last year’s breakout year



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
20
CLE
92
99
0
6
0
6
0
5-5
138.800
Where you expect to see a LeBron-less team, though they are getting strong performances from previous season role players



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
21
NYK
98
99
1
5
2
6
1
3-8
137.010
Continued disappointment – lack of interior presence is killing the Knicks. The Suns style game plan and reliance on the 3-ball is hurting them.



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
22
SAC
107
109
0
5
2
6
2
3-6
133.420
Struggling big time with the  5 game skid. Second year blues for Tyreke Evans and his team.



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
23
HOU
107.8
115
2
2
1
4
0
3-7
104.290
A team that has a lot of talent that is not gelling together, combined by the fact Yao is out injured (Again) and this team is not looking so good



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
24
TOR
102.5
104
1
5
1
5
2
2-9
94.770
Surprise win against Orlando was the only bright spark for the Raptors in what looms as a disappointing year post Bosh.



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
25
PHI
98
98
0
6
0
6
1
2-9
81.670
Lack of a prolific scorer and rebounders is killing the 76’ers 


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
26
MEM
103.6
107
1
2
2
5
1
4-8
56.970
Poor defense and inexperience is not allowing Memphis to make in-roads into development



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
27
DET
92.8
102
0
3
1
6
1
4-7
51.190
Lack of consistent high profile scores and maturity is why the Pistons are likely to have their worst year in many



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
28
WAS
98
109
1
5
1
6
2
3-6
49.200
Young team struggling with ball control despite John Wall having an impressive start to his rookie year. Josh Howard would be a nice defensive help



Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
29
LAC
91.4
99
1
3
1
5
0
1-10
-50.070
Disappointment. Not much else that can be said. Kaman is a shadow of the performance he was last year, and Baron Davis looks disinterested. If not for Gordon or Griffin they would be dead last


Rank
Team
PPG
OPPG
Scorers > 17.5
Scoring Role Players
> 6 RPG
Depth
# of Passers
Win Loss
Ranking Points
30
MIN
96.8
114
0
4
1
4
0
3-9
-63.490
Whilst they have one of the most exciting front courts going around in Love and Beasley, there is not much to love about


Now we have the analysis for the weekly NBA rankings out of the way. Sports Analytics INC’s formula driven predictions for the remaining season have the following predictions for standings at the end of the season. This is driven by the following table:
  
Stat
Why measure this statistic?
Weighting Factor
# of All-Star Players
How many stars does the roster have?
# * 10
# of All NBA First Team Players
How many superstars past or present does the team have?
# * 10
# of All NBA Second Team Players
How many consistent stars does the roster have?
# * 7.5
# of All NBA Third Team Players
How many relatively consistent stars does the roster have?
# * 5
# of Championship Players
How many players know what it’s like to win a championship?
# * 15
Average Age of Team
How old are the team?
Ranking age into +/- points
Logic Overrule
Despite all these stats, what does my head, heart and stomach tell me about each team and their likely finish?
A plus or minus of points on gut feel

As of the last seasonal projections, the following big movers are highlighted in orange and the sliders are in blue:
  • Dallas’ defense has been tremendous in the opening year with the acquisition of Tyson Chandler, combined with Brendan Haywood being in the system longer, the more the season progresses, the likely improvement to the defense will occur
  • New Orleans’ ability to not turn the ball over, rebound and kill teams on the pick and roll has been a big surprise. This style holds well for an entire year providing injuries do not hit
  • San Antonio’s system and back court are providing rejuvenated basketball and come playoffs, no doubt their defense first system led by Popovich will keep them around after the first round
  • Milwaukee’s defense has been strong which has warranted a move up in the seasonal projections. Combined with Andrew Bogut’s increased game time and the offense running through him more and there is no doubt the Bucks will improve.
Team
Projections points for year
Logic Overule
Final Standings
LA Lakers
769.620
899.620
1
Dallas
531.720
781.720
2
Orlando
741.890
761.890
3
New Orleans
585.420
735.420
4
Miami
776.880
726.880
5
San Antonio
522.250
702.250
6
Boston
570.790
680.790
7
Atlanta
575.040
600.040
8
Chicago
630.500
590.500
9
Utah
531.020
541.020
10
Golden State
499.920
529.920
11
Denver
373.230
463.230
12
Portland
343.260
373.260
13
New Jersey
341.580
391.580
14
Phoenix
248.870
388.870
15
Indiana
204.190
314.190
16
Milwaukee
225.830
275.830
17
Charlotte
190.160
245.160
18
Oklahoma 
187.060
237.060
19
Cleveland
150.800
200.800
20
New York
144.010
164.010
21
Sacramento
178.920
153.920
22
Houston
128.290
138.290
23
Toronto
85.770
105.770
24
Philadelphia
82.670
97.670
25
Memphis
48.970
78.970
26
Detroit
71.690
51.690
27
Washington
173.700
23.700
28
Minnesota
-60.070
-35.070
29
LA Clippers
-67.490
-67.490
30

 Stay tuned for next week
Posted by MJM at 7:45 PM

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