Has there been a better club placed to go back-to-back than Collingwood in 2011?

It is premature yes. The grand finalists have not commenced pre-season training yet, however an eerie feeling amongst the mecca of AFL football world has most football experts thinking...Is the premiership a cakewalk for the good old Collingwood in 2011? A more in-depth look at a few dimensions articulates just why the Pies are set for another flag in 2011


Collingwood's List and Average Age
In terms of the last 20 years of AFL, only 1 team has looked on par or in better shape from a list management perspective heading into the following year to deliver back-to-back flags...Brisbane in 2001/02. What is a more damning statistic is the Brisbane average age of this list heading into the 2002 season was 26.5 years of age, with many of it's stars closer to the end than their prime. Fast forward to the Collingwood premiership team and the Grand Final 22 that ran out in the replay and their average age is 24.1 years, with arguably 7 of their top ten players under the age of 27.


Player, Age, Games
Darren Jolly, 30, 192
Nick Maxwell, 27, 140
Alan Didak, 27, 182
Luke Ball, 26, 166
Dane Swan, 26, 151
Heath Shaw, 25, 115
Harry O'Brien, 25, 111
Travis Cloke, 23, 124
Dale Thomas, 23, 111
Scott Pendlebury, 22, 102


These are staggering stats, especially when you throw in the talent of Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams, Goldsack, Blair, N. Brown, Dawes, Macaffer, Reid, Dick and Toovey are all under 23/24 years of age and the nucleus of a dynasty is beckoning. Furthermore, add in veterans of Johnson, Davis (arguable to get game time next year), L.Brown, and new recruits Krakouer and Tarrant and this is 26 players that all bar 1 have upside and development in them. 


Game Plan
In 2010, the AFL community witnessed the next level of what St.Kilda delivered in 2009 of frontal pressure. The new version - the Swarm saw Collingwood hunt the ball carrier in numbers with players behind the hunters backfilling their previous spot making it near impossible to move the ball forward. This style of defense is likened to a basketball full court zone, where players in the most damaging positions are manned up and players that are not in damaging positions allow their direct opponents like Maxwell, O'Brien, Shaw to be unaccountable and turn the ball from defense to attack. This allowed the Collingwood midfield brigade to run forward of the ball, scoring at will with high numbers of goal kickers, not witnessed since Essendon's brilliant 2000 season. 


What also needs to be commended using this game style is certainly complemented by going around the boundary line. This mode of attack safeguards Collingwood's ability to swarm forward in numbers and if they do turn the ball over, then they have only half the ground the defend, not surrendering two halves of a ground to be counter-attacked on. This blend of attack and defense must be commended as one of the most balanced in previous years. Sydney, West Coast and Brisbane won premierships from defend first mentalities, with Brisbane kicking long to stalwart forwards. Geelong, Essendon, Port Adelaide all won from brutal pressure but attack first mentalities. Collingwood's system took a best of both breed to create a unique wall of attacking defense that converted into scoring opportunity. 

The Contenders
Reviewing Collingwood's upside must also put some fear into the main contenders of their traditional rivals this year. St. Kilda have an ageing list - an average age of 27.1 years going into next year, with huge question marks over at least half their starting 22's ability to add more strings to their bows. Combine an ageing list, with poor foot skills, lack of pace, and few options to spread opposition backlines, and the signs do not look good. A team with strong will, fantastic coaching, and good structures, don't often get to the big dance 3 years in a row, let alone win the cup. St. Kilda needs rapid improvement from the kids and there are only a handful of these - Armitage, Steven, Stanley, Lynch, Miles. The well dries up pretty quick after that.


Looking at Geelong and the fact they've lost their marquee player in Ablett, a Coach and a game plan that can no longer stand the test of pressure and trouble is looming around the corner. Compounded by the fact their average list age is on par with St. Kilda's and the signs are even more worrying. Can a mature list change it's game plan over the Summer, execute the game plan and compete against the best? Question marks still exist that might not render a positive answer. What also is worrying for the Cats is that in Bomber Thompson's final 2-3 years, the kids did not get much airtime. Without this airtime, kids rarely can step into prime positions and add immediate value. Let's hope the change in game plan can be adopted effectively and the senior players buy in to a needed change. 


The Western Bulldogs are an interesting one. Over the trade period they recruited some young fringe players that may blossom in a new environment, but the problem still might exist. They have an ageing list despite the departure of Johnson, Eagleton and Akermanis. Also question marks exist that their most talented players are the outside, silky players that don't win enough of their own hard ball, especially in big games. The Western Bulldogs led the league for contested football against the lesser teams, yet were outworked against the cream of the crop. The cynic in me says that their backline and forward line says it does not ooze enough class and upside development that improvement can be made to eat into Collingwood's lion share of the glory in 2011. 


Fremantle are the big smokey. 12 home games with a maturing young list full of skill, run, and another preseason in the weights room means they will be bigger, stronger and their tackling pressure might stick for four quarters. The fact Pavlich stuck around until the end of his career highlights he means business and wants a flag. Combined with a fitter Palmer, Hill, Mundy, McPharlin, Johnson, Ballantyne and Co, and the Baby Dockers are likely going to be the biggest challenger. The rationale for this is in 2010, the Dockers won interstate games. Make Subiaco a fortress and 15-17 wins is a strong possibility. This gets the baby Dockers two home finals before embarking on the big dance which might just be 16 years to get to the first Saturday in October. Funny it might turn out they have climbed 1 ladder position a year to get to the top of the summit since their inception into the league. 


The final major contender is Hawthorn. Can this team stay injury free and shed the inconsistency tag since they pinched the 2008 premiership. With Buddy Franklin and a fit confident Roughhead receiving sublime delivery from an abundance of left footers, and a gameplan that brings back the unsociable football might just be Collingwood's biggest challenger. 


Of the rest - the fact that compromised drafts and key players from many clubs left to head North to the Gold Coast and the improvement of the sides that finished below the top 6 indicates improvement will likely on be incremental if more than marginal which points to Pies having a cakewalk in what looms as a one sided season.


In summary, the evidence to a Magpie back-to-back is mounting. They are well-drilled, disciplined, at the peak of their powers with all the resources they need at their disposal. The list management and building to a dynasty might have just been achieved in a period when the other 16 AFL teams will have a tough time making rapid improvement during a time of compromised drafting and player availability due to the incoming teams. This dynasty is looking likely to shelve the Colliwobbles for good and give the Magpie Army long-term sustained success.